←back to thread

Kelly Can't Fail

(win-vector.com)
389 points jmount | 1 comments | 19 Dec 24 23:07 UTC | HN request time: 0.211s | source
Show context
malisper ◴[20 Dec 24 01:35 UTC] No.42467484[source]▶
I need to do some Math, but I wonder if there's a better strategy than Kelly betting. An assumption made for Kelly betting is the bets are independent of each other. That's not the case in the problem given.

After making a bet, you gain information about the contents of the rest of the deck of cards. I could see it being possible to do better by pricing in that information into your bet.

replies(2): >>42467912 #>>42469416 #
1. amluto ◴[20 Dec 24 03:05 UTC] No.42467912[source]▶
But the information gained in this game is independent of your bet. The multi-armed bandit problem is a famous example of the opposite situation.