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Kelly Can't Fail

(win-vector.com)
389 points jmount | 3 comments | | HN request time: 0.433s | source
1. malisper ◴[] No.42467484[source]
I need to do some Math, but I wonder if there's a better strategy than Kelly betting. An assumption made for Kelly betting is the bets are independent of each other. That's not the case in the problem given.

After making a bet, you gain information about the contents of the rest of the deck of cards. I could see it being possible to do better by pricing in that information into your bet.

replies(2): >>42467912 #>>42469416 #
2. amluto ◴[] No.42467912[source]
But the information gained in this game is independent of your bet. The multi-armed bandit problem is a famous example of the opposite situation.
3. necovek ◴[] No.42469416[source]
That seems to be exactly what this strategy is doing: at every step, you account for the probability of the red or black card coming up, and bet accordingly (both the sum and the colour).