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Fair coins tend to land on the side they started (2023)

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392 points seanhunter | 3 comments | 19 Nov 24 09:03 UTC | HN request time: 2.169s | source
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cgag ◴[19 Nov 24 15:25 UTC] No.42184472[source]▶
I wouldn't be surprised if there is something to it, but I suspected they didn't use legitimate coin flips (because it seems like a large amount of people can't really flip a coin), and looking at the videos confirms it, at least for the flips done by Bartos:

https://osf.io/6a5hy/

They're very low RPM and very low time in the air. Nothing I would accept for any decision worth flipping a coin for.

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BiteCode_dev ◴[19 Nov 24 15:32 UTC] No.42184567[source]▶
That's not tossing a coin, that's barely throwing it in the air.

To me this kills the credibility of the entire study and of the authors.

Sure, there may be something to it, but people will have a very different thing on their mind unless they check the video, which I wouldn't have done without your prompting.

It's unlikely they don't understand how misleading it is.

And somehow I have the intuition a proper coin toss will not exhibit the same properties.

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1. hackernewds ◴[19 Nov 24 17:09 UTC] No.42185717[source]▶
a coin is likely to land on the same side. it was flipped from if it was tossed by a machine at low RPM and height consistently*

there's your paper

replies(1): >>42185774 #
2. BiteCode_dev ◴[19 Nov 24 17:13 UTC] No.42185774[source]▶
I'm sure you will find similar behavior with dice if you just gently let them fall from your hands instead of throwing them across the table.

This is silly.

replies(1): >>42185840 #
3. whythre ◴[19 Nov 24 17:17 UTC] No.42185840[source]▶
Somebody’s grant money getting thrown down a hole…