←back to thread

Fair coins tend to land on the side they started (2023)

(www.researchgate.net)
392 points seanhunter | 10 comments | 19 Nov 24 09:03 UTC | HN request time: 0.848s | source | bottom
Show context
cgag ◴[19 Nov 24 15:25 UTC] No.42184472[source]▶
I wouldn't be surprised if there is something to it, but I suspected they didn't use legitimate coin flips (because it seems like a large amount of people can't really flip a coin), and looking at the videos confirms it, at least for the flips done by Bartos:

https://osf.io/6a5hy/

They're very low RPM and very low time in the air. Nothing I would accept for any decision worth flipping a coin for.

replies(4): >>42184567 #>>42184698 #>>42185735 #>>42191147 #
1. BiteCode_dev ◴[19 Nov 24 15:32 UTC] No.42184567[source]▶
That's not tossing a coin, that's barely throwing it in the air.

To me this kills the credibility of the entire study and of the authors.

Sure, there may be something to it, but people will have a very different thing on their mind unless they check the video, which I wouldn't have done without your prompting.

It's unlikely they don't understand how misleading it is.

And somehow I have the intuition a proper coin toss will not exhibit the same properties.

replies(3): >>42185496 #>>42185717 #>>42187573 #
2. thrw42A8N ◴[19 Nov 24 16:51 UTC] No.42185496[source]▶
Is it unlikely? If I didn't read your comment I wouldn't see any problem there. I never saw anyone flipping a coin in a different way. It's just not done much around me.
replies(1): >>42185812 #
3. hackernewds ◴[19 Nov 24 17:09 UTC] No.42185717[source]▶
a coin is likely to land on the same side. it was flipped from if it was tossed by a machine at low RPM and height consistently*

there's your paper

replies(1): >>42185774 #
4. BiteCode_dev ◴[19 Nov 24 17:13 UTC] No.42185774[source]▶
I'm sure you will find similar behavior with dice if you just gently let them fall from your hands instead of throwing them across the table.

This is silly.

replies(1): >>42185840 #
5. BiteCode_dev ◴[19 Nov 24 17:16 UTC] No.42185812[source]▶
If you claim to do a research on coin tossing, the minimum is to be aware on how people toss coin.

The whole purpose of tossing a coin is randomness, so of course you want high and fast.

If the result was that no matter how high and fast you throw is you get this bias, it would have been interesting.

But now you just say "if you do things badly, things don't work".

replies(2): >>42185933 #>>42186164 #
6. whythre ◴[19 Nov 24 17:17 UTC] No.42185840{3}[source]▶
Somebody’s grant money getting thrown down a hole…
7. ummonk ◴[19 Nov 24 17:24 UTC] No.42185933{3}[source]▶
No, the whole point of the paper (and the physics model it is verifying) is to see what happens in normal human coin tosses.

If you want to measure what happens specifically with high and fast coin tosses, then that’s an entirely different study to be done.

replies(1): >>42185977 #
8. philipov ◴[19 Nov 24 17:28 UTC] No.42185977{4}[source]▶
I don't know what a normal human coin toss is. Does the paper contain evidence/argument to justify their way of flipping a coin as "normal"?
9. Vinnl ◴[19 Nov 24 17:44 UTC] No.42186164{3}[source]▶
That still sound valuable if people generally tend to do it badly? If only to provide an argument for doing it properly.
10. nfw2 ◴[19 Nov 24 20:09 UTC] No.42187573[source]▶
I think it's still noteworthy that what many people consider a "fair toss" is not in fact a fair toss. In other words it's interesting from an applied psychology perspective even if the physics of the phenomenon isn't particularly interesting.