←back to thread

597 points mooreds | 6 comments | | HN request time: 0.829s | source | bottom
Show context
euroderf ◴[] No.42176649[source]
So what's the solution ? Assign a surveillance UAV to every Russian ship parked "without a good reason" over a cable ? It would be expensive, but doable, and create a reserve of vehicles for wartime use.
replies(13): >>42176749 #>>42176841 #>>42177370 #>>42178833 #>>42179561 #>>42179942 #>>42180172 #>>42180905 #>>42181805 #>>42182065 #>>42182741 #>>42182772 #>>42185221 #
regnull ◴[] No.42176841[source]
The solution is to project strength and hit them where they don't expect. You are dealing with a thug, not a cost/benefit accountant, as Obama seemed to mistakenly believe. As long as they do things and we respond, nothing good will happen. They have already calculated the response and found it acceptable. Instead of this, go to the mattresses. Oh, your bridge has suddenly exploded? Shame.
replies(3): >>42176982 #>>42179050 #>>42182126 #
HumblyTossed ◴[] No.42179050[source]
"We" won't respond because "we" just elected a Russian asset and he is going to install more in his cabinet.
replies(1): >>42179327 #
IncreasePosts ◴[] No.42179327[source]
It's already been settled that the trump dossier from 2016 was a work of fiction.

Why did Putin take crimea under Obama's watch, parts of Ukraine under Biden's watch, but then not make any huge moves like those while his "asset" was in the white house?

replies(4): >>42179474 #>>42179582 #>>42187541 #>>42203870 #
aguaviva ◴[] No.42179582[source]
Because he needed all that time (2014-2022) to build up his forces and cash reserves.

Also, he needed a green light. Which was provided in the form of the chaotic Afghanistan pullout in 2021. Not that he was counting on it -- but once it went through, it seems very likely that tipped the scales in his mind in favor of deciding to actually go through with the full-scale invasion in 2022.

replies(2): >>42179787 #>>42184854 #
IncreasePosts ◴[] No.42184854[source]
Doubtful. He needed another 8 years after an annexing Crimea to build up the Russian army? Why would he need cash reserves if he has a toadie in the white house?

Imagine how quickly ukriane would have collapsed if the US was not providing support, and the US was preventing European nations from providing support. And then imagine how well off Russia would be if there were no sanctions placed on it by America. All in all your point doesn't make sense. You don't get an asset sitting in the oval office and then not use them.

replies(1): >>42185381 #
aguaviva ◴[] No.42185381[source]
Why would he need cash reserves if he has a toadie in the white house?

You may want to think about the chronology again.

And then ask yourself if your statement above still makes sense.

replies(1): >>42185500 #
1. IncreasePosts ◴[] No.42185500[source]
You're saying Russia couldn't have invaded Ukraine successfully in 2018, if the US and Europe were not providing support, and no sanctions were levied on Russia?
replies(2): >>42185992 #>>42187732 #
2. aguaviva ◴[] No.42185992[source]
You're saying Russia couldn't have invaded Ukraine successfully in 2018

They didn't invade successfully in 2022, either. Meaning they were never able to invade successfully at any year before that. The whole war is a gigantic delusion for them, remember.

But as for evidence that they needed about 7-8 years to build their resources to a point where its regime thought they could invade successfully:

One of the pieces of evidence in favor of this view is the graph of the CBRF's (that's the Central Bank of Russia) holdings of foreign cash reserves, over the past 20 years. It shows oscillation or decline up until 2014, and then from 2014-2022, steady increases each year, resulting in a net increase from about $100b to $300b by 2022.

Military analyst say that Russia engaged in similar purchasing patterns internally (building up its reserves of shells and missile stocks, for example).

replies(1): >>42186828 #
3. IncreasePosts ◴[] No.42186828[source]
You're ignoring half of what I'm saying. In 2022, they had to deal with the US and Europe providing aid and arms to Ukraine, and sanctions levied on Russia, because they didn't have their stooge in the White House.

If they invaded in 2018, they wouldn't have had to deal with any of those things. That is, if Trump actually is a Russian agent. So why did they wait until the situation was much worse for them in order to invade?

replies(2): >>42187845 #>>42188110 #
4. koiueo ◴[] No.42187732[source]
In 2019-2021 our president zieliensky - ordered retreat from fortified positions - downsized our army - demined southern and eastern borders

I'll leave out whether this was intentional or because he saw peace in putin's eyes (as he himself claimed).

But yes, russia couldn't successfully invade in 2018.

5. aguaviva ◴[] No.42187845{3}[source]
I'm not ignoring it.

I considered it, but I just don't think it adds up to what you think it does.

6. geoka9 ◴[] No.42188110{3}[source]
> In 2022, they had to deal with the US and Europe providing aid and arms to Ukraine, and sanctions levied on Russia

On top of what the GP listed, there was also the post-pandemic uncertainty, soaring inflation and increase in the support of far-right/isolationist politicians in Europe. The Russians probably expected a slow start from them and a quick takeover of Kyiv[0], which would likely mean game over for a big chunk (if not all) of Ukraine. To be fair, they almost succeeded: it came down to the single battle that saved Kyiv from a quick occupation[1].

Last (but not least), there was the Putin's isolation during the pandemic when he might have read too much of Russian fascism philosophers'[2]. To me, the open all-out invasion at that time seemed very much out of his style as he had always preferred covert probing and sabotage before that.

[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Antonov_Airport [1]https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-russias-failure-to-take-... [2]https://thebulletin.org/2022/03/inside-putins-head-paranoid-...