Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

Substantial Russian activity also near UK, raises concerns that Russia would cut off UK. [0]

Russian ships ‘plotting sabotage in the North Sea’ [1]

[0] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-undersea-...

[1] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ships...

Do these nations not have navies? Can’t they tell the Russian non-combat ships (or pressure them) to get lost?

And risk escalation!? /s

Just because it is not publicized does not mean it is not happening. Most military operations do not take along journalists, and are not reported to the press. Some are even secret.

That said, there is a limited amount that can be done in international waters without creating an international incident. Law Of The Seas, Freedom Of Navigation, etc.. It is to our advantage for example, when we want to prevent CCP's from denying access to international waters around Taiwan or Phillipines, but to Russia's advantage when scouting undersea cables in international waters.

They can field more "research" vessels than we'd typically field mil vessels, but I'd bet real money that that ratio just changed a lot in the past few weeks, as it hits the press.

> They can field more "research" vessels than...

Back during the cold war, there was very often a Soviet "fishing boat" trailing after any substantial US Navy fleet. Said fishing boat may have had far more antennas than any fisherman would expect, but far less interest in catching fish.

Fast forward - what would be the cost of having cheap western drones hanging around nearby, when suspected Russian assets were close to undersea cables, pipelines, and such?

We do but ocean and air is big :)

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/nato-jets-in...

Also with cables, they can be destroyed with "innocent" ships that have a right to be there actually :)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65309687

Russia has a programme to sabotage wind farms and communication cables in the North Sea, according to new allegations.

The details come from a joint investigation by public broadcasters in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland.

It says Russia has a fleet of vessels disguised as fishing trawlers and research vessels in the North Sea.

Who says they don't do that constantly, but missed it this time?

> Can’t they tell the Russian non-combat ships (or pressure them) to get lost?

Not in international waters, which is where submarine cables are largely located.

And even if they could: The oceans are... kind of big. If it were that easy to "just patrol" shipping lanes/submarine cable tracks etc., why would piracy still be a concern?

The Irish just chased away a Russian "research" vessel.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/16/russian-spy-sh...

Are there not cables run through the Channel Tunnel? Seems like a no-brainer.

Would relatively cheap AI-piloted satellite connected ships with sensor equipment work as a solution?

I doubt it. It seems to be a similar problem to missile defense: When you have a lot of ground to cover and can only be in one place at a time, the defender will always be at a huge cost disadvantage compared to the attacker. That's only in one/two dimensions – add a third (submarines) and the cost imbalance shifts even more.

And even if it works, this will only give attackers pause that are deterred by attribution.

Basically if mass produced something makes defense "cheap" it likely makes offense even cheaper.

Fuel costs I suspect, which is where those continuous flight high altitude solar powered planes NASA was experimenting with really come into play.

That said, satellite tracking shipping is pretty easy - It's interdicting ina timely fashion which is not.

I mean, the UK has 20+ fibre links to other lands. If one goes down, fine, if a second goes down, it's suspicious. If a third goes down, and there are Russian ships milling about over the location of the.. yes, there goes a fourth, it doesn't take long to realise what's going on.

Now, what the British Navy would do about this I'm not precisely sure. But even to escort the ships away would put a stop to it, and the UK wouldn't be cut off.

They do: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/16/russian-spy-sh...

However, another one will be along soon.

I'd assume, at the moment, that the primary goal is intimidation rather than anything else.

Agreed that interdicting - if that means a naval or coast guard ship, or a submarine - is far more difficult and expensive.

But cheap drones can transmit "don't do that!" warnings. And also video footage of the situation. Which would seriously change both the maritime law and political situations.

Yes, there is fiber infrastructure in the Channel Tunnel [0]. I'm pretty sure that while any one good link is vastly better than zero links, no one link is sufficient to carry all traffic from/to the British Isles?

[0] https://www.colt.net/resources/colt-successfully-completes-t...

Interestingly, Ireland is not a NATO member, so it's somewhat surprising Russia is poking around there. Although they're still EU, so maybe that's why.

If you're routing through the Chunnel, I suspect you could fit at least two seperate links.

The silly thing is they know entirely well that we can do the same to them. The US/UK at least have at least the same capability, if not moreso.

>Fast forward - what would be the cost of having cheap western drones hanging around nearby, when suspected Russian assets were close to undersea cables, pipelines, and such?

If the suspicion is high enough, it's pretty standard for a US submarine or surface group to shadow whatever it is. It's free practice for the submarine crew.

This happened when the Russian ships visited cuba earlier this year.