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158 points voisin | 17 comments | | HN request time: 1.425s | source | bottom
1. r14c ◴[] No.42168778[source]
The only EV I'm even interested in is an Aptera. They're building a new class of vehicle that takes advantage of the affordances of full electric. I want a small efficient car that can go long distances and nobody else is building anything like that. Even US capital markets don't understand the appeal of this class of vehicle, but luckily they were able to fill their funding in global capital markets. I'm pretty pessimistic about US EVs, but Aptera gives me a little hope.
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2. underseacables ◴[] No.42169062[source]
I love Aptera! I just don't think it's ever going to take off. There's just not enough investment and demand. It looks ridiculous but it's an awesome concept of aerodynamics.
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3. burnt-resistor ◴[] No.42172692[source]
Sorry to burst your bubble, but unless there is another solar option, the 100 kWh pack will take around 40 days to charge by solar at 700W from 20% to 80%. Otherwise, it seems like the solar part is greenwashing with a bit of '70's-style geodesic dome and Balans chair styling. I'm all for cheap(er) EVs that don't involve Tesla like Scout or BYD.
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4. kube-system ◴[] No.42172956[source]
Aptera is coming up on their 20th anniversary of being vaporware. It's a vehicle with a potential market of potentially hundreds of nerds. Unfortunately, an idea that appeals to so few will never be a viable mass-production automaker.
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5. WorldMaker ◴[] No.42173088{3}[source]
The solar adds 40 miles roughly every 8 hours of sunlight. Of course it's not a way to get 100% charged regularly, but how often do you need the battery at 100%? 40 "free" miles a business day is still a game changer in fuel usage.
6. FooBarBizBazz ◴[] No.42173808[source]
It's neat, but it would require segregated roadways to be safe, and we're not going to get that.

I'd love to live in that world though. Smaller, lighter, lower-speed vehicles. Bicycles. Walkable neighborhoods. It'd be great.

But we can't have those nice things, because most Americans have atrocious taste -- and the ones who do have good taste, you can't afford to live next to.

replies(2): >>42176060 #>>42177910 #
7. throwawaymaths ◴[] No.42176043[source]
demonstrably false. Unless you think they're lying, they have something like ~47k preorders registered. If even 75% of those preorders flake, that's something like 2 years of manufacturing pipeline and sales, if they manage to get the first stage factory they want.
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8. throwawaymaths ◴[] No.42176060[source]
> it would require segregated roadways to be safe

Why would it? It has a carbon fiber monocoq hull with a steel roll cage. The shape is pretty much egg shaped, which seems like it would be fairly structurally resilient (IANA MechE)

9. throwawaymaths ◴[] No.42176106{3}[source]
it's probably greenwashing if you live in seattle or london, but lots of americans live in sunnier places and drive less (especially so now that people are WFH). I drive on the order of ~25 miles a day and supposedly the aptera will let me get that range on a day's charge, even though I live in a slightly less sunny place than say Texas, Arizona, or SoCal.
10. throwawaymaths ◴[] No.42176169[source]
People hated the prius too, when it first came out. But then Leonardo DiCaprio bought a Gen2 and pretty soon everyone wanted one. This is particularly funny because Honda built the insight first which looked crazy and nobody bought it, then Toyota built the Gen1 which looked like a normal car, then pivoted. Then Honda's Insight2 copied the New Prius vibe and this car ALSO failed, poor honda.

Looking unlike anything on the road catches eyes. Yesterday I was walking through an outdoor mall and I saw a bunch of kids crossing the road that jumped up and down and shouted "cybertruck!" when a cybertruck passed by.

Anyways, I happen to know the person who worked on the aptera's marketing campaign the first time around in 2009. Best Buy desperately wanted to get in on the EV market, and so they piloted showing Apteras at a few best buys, and they were laughed out of the room by all of the soccer moms walking in to store. It's pretty clear the market wasn't there in 2009... It's clear there is a huge vibe shift now, and the market is ready enough to at least launch the vehicle. Whether or not it will stick is a real question, but i think it would be silly to assume that the company can't get to say 100k cars on the road for lack of a market. Execution failure is, of course, still a possibility.

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11. kube-system ◴[] No.42176688{3}[source]
'Hundreds' was a bit of hyperbole, but it ain't far off.

47k in 100 countries, they say. These are $100 fully refundable 'preorders', so they're more like placeholders in line than anything else. They will absolutely have a high attrition rate because most of them are speculatory. And of small number that are serious -- how many of those are in a regulatory region where they will be launching? ...and in a way that they are normally registrable? I think even they'll be shocked to ship 10% of those preorders.

For a bit of a reality check here -- the cybertruck preorder originally had the exact same terms (before it got more expensive), and had 2 million preorders. They've sold almost 30k of them, and it has already been reported that all waitlist reservations have been fulfilled. So at best, a 98% attrition rate. If the Aptera ever ships, and they are able to convert sales as good as Tesla did with the Cybertruck -- then yeah, the number will be measured in hundreds, not thousands.

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12. r14c ◴[] No.42177910[source]
Not really, its registered as a motorcycle. From what I understand they're going above and beyond on safety to meet standards normally set for cars, but there are other light vehicles that people drive all the time that don't get special lanes.
13. r14c ◴[] No.42177965[source]
I was happy to see them get funded, but its fair to be wary. They are a new company after all, but I think there are a lot of emerging markets where this type of vehicle makes more sense than a wagon. I'm pretty pessimistic about US manufacturing in general tho so I'm willing to admit that there's a good chance that you're right about Aptera.
14. dangus ◴[] No.42180573{3}[source]
Something you have to understand is that the Aptera is bound to fail because it has two doors, two seats.

That's why the Honda Insight failed. The car didn't look crazy, it looked like a Civic. It didn't sell because was a tiny two-seater.

Look at the top 25 selling vehicles in America. Not one is lacking four door, 4+ passengers.

The ceiling for two door vehicles is the Ford Mustang. Ford sells about 50,000 of them, it's the top selling two door vehicle.

If Aptera could sell 10% of that in a year it would be essentially a miracle.

I also think the kind of demographic that is so eco-concious and anti-automotive status quo that they would consider something like an Aptera are already switching to cycling. I see that buyer as someone like City Nerd on YouTube, who at this point isn't looking for a better and more efficient car, they're looking to live car-free in a lively walkable/bikable urban neighborhood. The kind of person who wants to buy an Aptera is probably already halfway done packing to move to Copenhagen.

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15. throwawaymaths ◴[] No.42180970{4}[source]
The cybertruck also went up in price by 50k? IIRC from promised. I bet a lot of the flakes couldn't justify the extra cost. Sure the aptera has gone up from 28k? to 37k? but

1. That's likely a high water mark estimate

2. An extra 10k is easier to come up with, not to mention generally cars in that price range going up by about 5k anyways

16. throwawaymaths ◴[] No.42186633{4}[source]
So, I've met a lot of aptera investors and reservation holders and, (modulo selection bias, ofc), your characterization of them is incorrect. By far most of them are considering keeping a utility car and using aptera as a daily driver for work. It's not so expensive that that is crazy thing to do or want.

Anyways, time will tell which of us is correct.

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17. dangus ◴[] No.42194036{5}[source]
Obviously, I don't expect them to try and become the next Tesla or Toyota and make a car for every person, but there are just not a lot of car companies that can survive selling 10 or 20 thousands units per year, especially at an affordable price rather than selling a small amount of high volume luxury vehicles.

You look at the situation Jaguar is in where they are desperately pausing all production for an entire year to retool and try to come back and solely make six figure luxury vehicle to support their small volumes and that makes me wonder how Aptera can swing it with such a niche vehicle.

I totally believe you that there are people who want to use the Aptera this way. The problem with that is that for $30k there are a lot of options to fill that need that are very similarly eco-friendly and low cost of fuel.

$30k will buy you a Tesla Model 3 or Toyota Prius and both of those cars have extra utility by having double the seating capacity.

I just think that if this efficient commuter vehicle concept was more popular we would see more two-door cars around, vehicles like the original Honda Insight. You even see cars like the Mini Cooper and Mazda Miata that can fill this personal car role for many people facing declining sales numbers: people really demand 4 doors.

The thing is, someone who is buying a second car for $30k is far up the affluence ladder. Most people when they buy a car need it to do everything: commuting, transporting friends and family, making Home Depot runs. Having a second brand new $30k car just to commute is a huge luxury.

And that type of affluent person probably has a home with a garage, which kind of negates the solar charging concept immediately.

So, in my opinion, you really need to buy this car not for economic reasons, not for reasons of enjoyment/fun driving experience (like a sports car), but for ideological reasons. And that can be a tough sell.