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399 points gmays | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
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jmyeet ◴[] No.42166284[source]
Call me pessimistic but I don't think anything is going to change and a lot of people are going to die due to climate-forced migration.

That being said, it's a difficult topic to discuss rationally. Part of the issue is deciding on what your baseline is. Looking at the last 200 years tells a pretty limited view. Consider around 100,000 years ago when global temperatures were similar [1].

That raises some questions about what caused that spike but, more importantly, what caused it to lower. You can say "an ice age" but what really triggers an ice age?

My point here is that doomsday predictions of Venus-like runaway inflation I think are both unrealistic and unhelpful in actually motivating people about an otherwise very real problem. We really have no idea of the mechanics in place.

But like I say, we're going to do absolutely nothing about it anyway.

[1]: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/analysis-is-it-actually...

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baq ◴[] No.42166326[source]
It’ll take a couple of mass casualty wet bulb events to shift the discourse from ‘it’s too expensive, just drill more’ to ‘oh shit whatever it takes’
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1. jmyeet ◴[] No.42167067[source]
I envy your optimism but I see no evidence that this will be the case. People want to believe all sorts of things and they'll reject all evidence that contradicts their world view. Just look at:

- Millions who died in Covid

- Vaccines in general

- "The election was stolen"

- Wind turbines are killing the whales [1];

- "There's a migrant crime wave"

And so on.

As long as the cost of climate change can be shifted to the Global South, by force when necessary, it will continue. It's sobering how cruel people can be, particularly in groups, if they feel like their way of life is threatened, or even when they might theoretically be slightly inconvenienced, as demonstrated by the recent protests in Kayesville, UT over providing warming centers for people in need when the weather gets too cold [2].

[1]: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66928305

[2]: https://ksltv.com/705578/kaysville-homeowners-show-up-in-lar...