Humans have caused 1.5 °C of long-term global warming according to new estimates

It’ll take a couple of mass casualty wet bulb events to shift the discourse from ‘it’s too expensive, just drill more’ to ‘oh shit whatever it takes’

Sadly, I'm skeptical about that. Covid killed a million Americans and half of America thinks the real enemy was the government telling people to stay home and wear masks. Drive down I-5 of CA's central valley, and you'll see signs saying "Congress created dust bowl."

In coming decades, I fully expect to see people blaming renewable energy and carbon tax for whatever new climate disaster we end up with. Hopefully we could ignore them, in the same way adults stop entertaining toddlers when shit happens.

Nah the oil and gas companies will just say these web bulb events are acts of God and there's nothing we can do about them. And plenty of people would believe them.

The first few are probably going to occur in south Asia and the most you'll see from Americans is some casual victim blaming. It's their poor infrastructure. It's their overpopulation. etc.

It would happen in poor countries and won't result into much "discourse". It has already happened actually. Moreover, even if it happens in the rich countries, are companies & countries ready to ban crypto or AI training of LLMs ? Would we be okay to increase airline prices (by putting a tax) so that people fly less ? Will countries be willing to reduce thermal energy by prioritising solar, wind and nuclear energy ? Can all countries decide to reduce petroleum usage by putting a 100% tax on gas ? Or will be ready to go vegetarian and vegan for reducing cattle farming ? Will be okay to put fines on food wastage ? If not, then there won't be any "whatever it takes"

Economically taxation would be the solution.

But the Carbon Tax credits/handling shows that we aren’t grown up enough to handle taxes properly.

I envy your optimism but I see no evidence that this will be the case. People want to believe all sorts of things and they'll reject all evidence that contradicts their world view. Just look at:

- Millions who died in Covid

- Vaccines in general

- "The election was stolen"

- Wind turbines are killing the whales [1];

- "There's a migrant crime wave"

And so on.

As long as the cost of climate change can be shifted to the Global South, by force when necessary, it will continue. It's sobering how cruel people can be, particularly in groups, if they feel like their way of life is threatened, or even when they might theoretically be slightly inconvenienced, as demonstrated by the recent protests in Kayesville, UT over providing warming centers for people in need when the weather gets too cold [2].

[1]: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66928305

[2]: https://ksltv.com/705578/kaysville-homeowners-show-up-in-lar...

We’ll be lucky if people blame technology, instead of other groups of people that they are then motivated to take vengeance on. That is what I fear.

Indeed, any and all rebuttals seem to reduce to:

>Nice argument. Unfortunately I have coined the phrase "Axe the tax" and shall depict you as the soy wojak.