←back to thread

307 points MBCook | 10 comments | | HN request time: 0.001s | source | bottom
Show context
bunderbunder ◴[] No.42151125[source]
I'd love to see some sort of multiple regression or ANOVA on this, instead of singling out a single variable. Is car brand really the best independent predictor? Or is it specific design decisions you tend to see in certain brands?

(Like, say, maximizing driver distraction by consolidating a bunch of essential controls and information displays into a touchscreen display that's really difficult to operate when it's sunny outside. Just to pick something at random, of course.)

Somewhat related, I was recently shopping for refrigerators, and fell down a data rabbit hole. If you just look at the overall style of fridge, French doors look like a terrible option from a reliability perspective. But then, digging in a bit more, it turns out that's kind of a spurious correlation. Actually it's the presence of bells and whistles like through-door ice dispensers that kill a refrigerator's reliability. And then perhaps on top of that the amount of extra Rube Goldberg machine you need to make a chest height ice dispenser work in a bottom-freezer French door refrigerator creates even more moving parts to break. But a those problems don't apply to a model that doesn't have that feature.

replies(10): >>42151205 #>>42151278 #>>42151294 #>>42151316 #>>42151413 #>>42151582 #>>42151717 #>>42151753 #>>42162767 #>>42176234 #
1. stego-tech ◴[] No.42151278[source]
I mean, even lacking proper scientific data, ask yourself how often your brain “autocompletes” someone based on a brand or object? There’s a reason advertisers spend so much money and effort cultivating a very specific customer image: it works.

In the case of Tesla - and I cannot overstress enough how much lf this is purely subjective conjecture on my part and not a statement of fact - the image cultivated by the company and its Chief Executive is very much one of rejecting norms and expectations, fierce independence, and a hostility towards others (mostly from the Cybertruck unveiling onward). The people who relate to that brand would, I would think, be more likely to flout laws like speed limits, failing to use indicators for turns or merges, and drive more aggressively than a brand that emphasizes safety or enjoyment of experience (like Hondas and Toyotas). My purely subjective experiences bear this out, and I’m consistently rewarded giving Teslas a wider berth on the roads.

So as far as branding as an indicator of outcome, yeah, I can totally see that being a reliable indicator. I’d still be darn curious to see more research about it, though.

replies(4): >>42151775 #>>42151786 #>>42152034 #>>42152380 #
2. sshine ◴[] No.42151775[source]
> The people who relate to that brand would, I would think, be more likely to flout laws like speed limits, failing to use indicators for turns or merges, and drive more aggressively than a brand that emphasizes safety or enjoyment of experience

And BMW owners like German shepherds?

replies(1): >>42152267 #
3. soerxpso ◴[] No.42151786[source]
This was my thought as well from looking at the actual list. Of the top 5 models with the worst fatal accident rate, 2 are luxury cars that seem like they'd attract drivers with reckless personalities (the Chevrolet Corvette and the Porsche 911). I don't think the average mile driven in a Corvette is really equivalent to the average mile driven in a Honda Civic.

This data is interesting, but not really useful for decisionmaking if we can't isolate the extent to which the disparities are caused by features of the actual vehicle, as opposed to driver selection factors.

Is anyone making an argument that the Model Y has an actual safety problem in its design? I'd like to hear about which physical aspect of the car people think is making it 4x less safe than the average car? I don't see anything obvious. Its crash test performance is fine. I'd hesitate to blame autopilot, since we know that they crash less often with autopilot enabled than without (even if due to selection factors).

4. piotrkaminski ◴[] No.42152034[source]
> brand that emphasizes safety or enjoyment of experience (like Hondas and Toyotas)

This is plausible on its face, and yet the Honda CR-V Hybrid ended up higher on the list than the Model Y. No idea how to explain that...

replies(2): >>42152256 #>>42152872 #
5. stego-tech ◴[] No.42152256[source]
It’s why I was very careful to make it as clear as possible that my own theory is rooted purely in conjecture and speculation based on personal experience, because: A) I don’t want to get sued B) I am not a researcher

Though if I had to take a guess on the CR-V: big, cheap SUV, often seen driven by young drivers in my area. Could be lack of experience? I can only speculate, though.

This is quickly becoming fodder for car forums!

replies(1): >>42153101 #
6. stego-tech ◴[] No.42152267[source]
Oh heck, we could go down the list car forum style if we’re not careful. So many stereotypes.
7. interestica ◴[] No.42152380[source]
You highlighted the correlation. I bet GoPro users have the highest fatality rate of all camera brands.
replies(1): >>42209454 #
8. floxy ◴[] No.42152872[source]
I guess I wouldn't be surprised if there were issues with data and/or analysis. Should we assume they are basing their miles driven off of used car listings? That is, they see someone puts a 2019 Subaru Impreza up for sale in 2023, with 50,000 miles, and they add that to their data set on how many miles the average Impreza gets driven per year? But maybe people leasing drive differently than those who own or keep vehicles longer? I'd like to see the data on their average number of miles driven per car model per year.

Would also be interesting to see which were the safest cars according to their analysis.

9. tzs ◴[] No.42153101{3}[source]
That doesn't explain why it was the hybrid CR-V with the high fatality rate, unless inexperiences drivers prefer the hybrid to the non-hybrid.
10. robertlagrant ◴[] No.42209454[source]
You should see the average injuries for mountain bikes over all bikes. Mountain bikes must just be really badly made!