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OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

(www.bloomberg.com)
625 points lukebennett | 3 comments | 13 Nov 24 13:28 UTC | HN request time: 0.494s | source
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iandanforth ◴[14 Nov 24 18:26 UTC] No.42139410[source]▶
A few important things to remember here:

The best engineering minds have been focused on scaling transformer pre and post training for the last three years because they had good reason to believe it would work, and it has up until now.

Progress has been measured against benchmarks which are / were largely solvable with scale.

There is another emerging paradigm which is still small(er) scale but showing remarkable results. That's full multi-modal training with embodied agents (aka robots). 1x, Figure, Physical Intelligence, Tesla are all making rapid progress on functionality which is definitely beyond frontier LLMs because it is distinctly different.

OpenAI/Google/Anthropic are not ignorant of this trend and are also reviving or investing in robots or robot-like research.

So while Orion and Claude 3.5 opus may not be another shocking giant leap forward, that does not mean that there arn't giant shocking leaps forward coming from slightly different directions.

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1. rafaelmn ◴[14 Nov 24 21:45 UTC] No.42141563[source]▶
>There is another emerging paradigm which is still small(er) scale but showing remarkable results. That's full multi-modal training with embodied agents (aka robots). 1x, Figure, Physical Intelligence, Tesla are all making rapid progress on functionality which is definitely beyond frontier LLMs because it is distinctly different.

Tesla is selling this view for almost a decade now in self-driving - how their car fleet feeding training data is going to make them leaders in the area. I don't find it convincing anymore

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2. torguyvg46787 ◴[15 Nov 24 01:40 UTC] No.42143183[source]▶
The approaches are very limited, and it's essentially artificial artificial AI (and need a lot of human teleop demos).

At CoRL last week, the progress has noticeably plateaued. Roboticists notably were pessimistic that scaling laws will apply to robotics because of the embodiment issues.

3. Dunedan ◴[15 Nov 24 06:41 UTC] No.42144438[source]▶
While one could argue whether Tesla or another company is the leader in this space, don't all promising self-driving approaches rely on this paradigm?