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    625 points lukebennett | 13 comments | | HN request time: 0.453s | source | bottom
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    iandanforth ◴[] No.42139410[source]
    A few important things to remember here:

    The best engineering minds have been focused on scaling transformer pre and post training for the last three years because they had good reason to believe it would work, and it has up until now.

    Progress has been measured against benchmarks which are / were largely solvable with scale.

    There is another emerging paradigm which is still small(er) scale but showing remarkable results. That's full multi-modal training with embodied agents (aka robots). 1x, Figure, Physical Intelligence, Tesla are all making rapid progress on functionality which is definitely beyond frontier LLMs because it is distinctly different.

    OpenAI/Google/Anthropic are not ignorant of this trend and are also reviving or investing in robots or robot-like research.

    So while Orion and Claude 3.5 opus may not be another shocking giant leap forward, that does not mean that there arn't giant shocking leaps forward coming from slightly different directions.

    replies(9): >>42139779 #>>42139984 #>>42140069 #>>42140194 #>>42140421 #>>42141563 #>>42142249 #>>42142983 #>>42143148 #
    1. knicholes ◴[] No.42139984[source]
    Once we've scraped the internet of its data, we need more data. Robots can take in video/audio data 24/7 and can be placed in your house to record this data by offering services like cooking/cleaning/folding laundry. Yeah, I'll pay $20k to have you record everything that happens in my house if I can stop doing dishes for five years!
    replies(5): >>42140130 #>>42140146 #>>42140263 #>>42141123 #>>42142935 #
    2. triyambakam ◴[] No.42140130[source]
    Or get a dishwashing machine?
    3. hartator ◴[] No.42140146[source]
    Why 5 years?
    replies(5): >>42140215 #>>42140216 #>>42140220 #>>42140608 #>>42141793 #
    4. bredren ◴[] No.42140215[source]
    Because whatever org fills this space will be working on ARR.
    5. exe34 ◴[] No.42140216[source]
    that's when the robot takes his job and he can't afford the robot anymore.
    6. fifilura ◴[] No.42140220[source]
    Five years, that's all we've got.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Years_(David_Bowie_song...

    7. fldskfjdslkfj ◴[] No.42140263[source]
    There's plenty of video content being uploaded and streamed everyday, i find it hard to believe the more data will really change something, excluding very specialized tasks.
    replies(1): >>42140567 #
    8. nuancebydefault ◴[] No.42140567[source]
    The difference with the bot is that there is a fast feedback loop between action and content. No tagging required, real physics is the playground.
    9. twelve40 ◴[] No.42140608[source]
    > OpenAI has announced a plan to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) within five years, an ambitious goal as the company works to design systems that outperform humans.
    10. fragmede ◴[] No.42141123[source]
    People go and live in a house to get recorded 24/7, to be on tv, for far more asnine situations, for way less money.
    11. knicholes ◴[] No.42141793[source]
    No real reason. I just made it up. But that's kind of my reasonable expectation of longevity of a machine like a robotic lawnmower and battery life.
    12. BobaFloutist ◴[] No.42142935[source]
    There already exists a robot that does the dishes, it's called a dishwasher.
    replies(1): >>42145208 #
    13. ogogmad ◴[] No.42145208[source]
    You still need to load it.