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OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

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625 points lukebennett | 5 comments | 13 Nov 24 13:28 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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aaroninsf ◴[14 Nov 24 18:20 UTC] No.42139331[source]▶
It's easy to be snarky at ill-informed and hyperbolic takes, but it's also pretty clear that large multi-modal models trained with the data we already have, are going to eventually give us AGI.

IMO this will require not just much more expansive multi-modal training, but also novel architecture, specifically, recurrent approaches; plus a well-known set of capabilities most systems don't currently have, e.g. the integration of short-term memory (context window if you like) into long-term "memory", either episodic or otherwise.

But these are as we say mere matters of engineering.

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1. tartoran ◴[14 Nov 24 18:31 UTC] No.42139463[source]▶
> pretty clear

Pretty clear?

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2. falcor84 ◴[14 Nov 24 19:01 UTC] No.42139864[source]▶
Not the parent, but in prediction markets such as Metaculus[0] and Manifold[1] the median prediction is of AGI within 5 years.

[0] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-...

[1] https://manifold.markets/ai

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3. JohnMakin ◴[14 Nov 24 19:28 UTC] No.42140155[source]▶
Prediction markets are evidence of nothing but what people believe is true, not what is true.
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4. dbbk ◴[14 Nov 24 19:34 UTC] No.42140214[source]▶
What is this supposed to be evidence of? People believing hype?
5. falcor84 ◴[14 Nov 24 20:26 UTC] No.42140808{3}[source]▶
Oh, that was my intent, to support the grandparent's claim of "it's also pretty clear" - as in this is what people believe.

If I had evidence that it "is true" that AGI will be here in 5 years, I probably would be doing something else with my time than participating in these threads ;)