One thing I suspect investors in e.g. OpenAI are failing to price in is the political and regulatory headwinds OpenAI will face if their fantastical revenue projections actually materialize. A world where OpenAI is making $100B in annual revenue will likely be a world where technological unemployment looms quite clearly. Polls already show strong support for regulating AI.
I'm trying to think of whether it'd be worth starting some kind of semi-Luddite community where we can use digital technology, photos, radios, spreadsheets and all, but the line is around 2014, when computers still did the same thing every time. That's my biggest gripe with AI, the nondeterminism, the non-repeatability making it all undebuggable, impossible to interrogate and reason about. A computer in 2014 is complex but not incomprehensible. The mass matrix multiplication of 2024 computation is totally opaque and frankly I think there's room for a society without such black box oracles.