One thing I suspect investors in e.g. OpenAI are failing to price in is the political and regulatory headwinds OpenAI will face if their fantastical revenue projections actually materialize. A world where OpenAI is making $100B in annual revenue will likely be a world where technological unemployment looms quite clearly. Polls already show strong support for regulating AI.
I'm trying to think of whether it'd be worth starting some kind of semi-Luddite community where we can use digital technology, photos, radios, spreadsheets and all, but the line is around 2014, when computers still did the same thing every time. That's my biggest gripe with AI, the nondeterminism, the non-repeatability making it all undebuggable, impossible to interrogate and reason about. A computer in 2014 is complex but not incomprehensible. The mass matrix multiplication of 2024 computation is totally opaque and frankly I think there's room for a society without such black box oracles.
That absolutely kills open source, and it's disguised as a "safety" bill where safety means absolutely nothing (how are you "shutting down" an LLM?). There's a reason Anthropic was championing it even though it evidently regulates AI.
Zvi says this claim is false: https://thezvi.substack.com/p/guide-to-sb-1047?open=false#%C...
>how are you "shutting down" an LLM?
Pull the plug on the server? Seems like it's just about having a protocol in place to make that easy in case of an emergency. Doesn't seem that onerous.
2014 is when I became aware of gradient descent and how entropy was used to search more effectively, leading to different runs of the same program arriving at different results, Deep Dream came soon after and it's been downhill from there
If I were to write some regulations for what was allowed in my computing community I would make an exception for using PRNGs for scientific simulation and cryptographic purposes, but definitely I would draw a line at using heuristics to find optimal solutions. Slide rules got us to the moon and that's good enough for me.
The AI advocates actively advertised AI as a tool for replacing creatives, including plagiarizing their work, and copying the appearance and voices of individuals. It's not really surprising that everyone in the creative industries is going to use what little power they have to avoid this doomsday scenario.