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321 points jhunter1016 | 15 comments | | HN request time: 0.001s | source | bottom
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cynicalpeace ◴[] No.41882321[source]
I'm betting against OpenAI. Sam Altman has proven himself and his company untrustworthy. In long running games, untrustworthy players lose out.

If you disagree, I would argue you have a very sad view of the world, where truth and cooperation are inferior to lies and manipulation.

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1. swatcoder ◴[] No.41882946[source]
> If you disagree, I would argue you have a very sad view of the world, where truth and cooperation are inferior to lies and manipulation.

You're holding everyone to a very simple, very binary view with this. It's easy to look around and see many untrustworthy players in very very long running games whose success lasts most of their own lives and often even through their legacy.

That doesn't mean that "lies and manipulation" trump "truth and cooperation" in some absolute sense, though. It just means that significant long-running games are almost always very multi-faceted and the roads that run through them involve many many more factors than those.

Those of us who feel most natural being "truthful and cooperative" can find great success ourselves while obeying our sense of integrity, but we should be careful about underestimating those who play differently. They're not guaranteed to lose either.

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3. cynicalpeace ◴[] No.41883186[source]
I didn't say they're guaranteed to lose. I said I'd put my money on it.

If you put your money otherwise, that's a sad view of the world.

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5. pfisherman ◴[] No.41883438[source]
The etymological origin of “credit” comes from Latin for believe or trust. Credibility is everything in business, and you can put a dollar cost on it.

While banditry can work out in the short term; it pretty much always ends up the same way. There aren’t a lot of old gangsters walking around.

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6. cynicalpeace ◴[] No.41883460[source]
The entire world economy is based on trust. You worked for 8 hours today because you trust you'll get money in a week that you trust can be used to buy toilet paper at Costco.

There are actually fascinating theories that the origin of money is not as a means of replacing a barter system, but rather as a way of keeping track who owed favors to each other. IOUs, so to speak.

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7. johnisgood ◴[] No.41883490{3}[source]
> as a way of keeping track who owed favors to each other

I do not see how that is possible considering I have no clue who the second last owner of a cash was before me, most of the time.

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8. bobthepanda ◴[] No.41883592{4}[source]
the origin of money, vs what money is now, are not necessarily one and the same.
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9. steego ◴[] No.41883919{4}[source]
That's because you're imagining early paper currency as a universal currency.

These early promissory notes were more like coupons that were redeemed by the merchants. It didn't matter how many times a coupon was traded. As a good merchant, you knew how many of your notes you had to redeem because you're the one issuing the notes.

10. qaq ◴[] No.41884744[source]
Thats extremely optimistic view of the world.
11. m463 ◴[] No.41884811{3}[source]
I like the books "the rational optimist" ridley and "debt" graeber. You get interesting perspectives.

What I remember from the rational optimist - with trust, trade is unlimited.

what I remember from debt - just too much, need to read it.

That said, why would an investor give money to altman if he is untrustworthy? it just gets worse and worse.

12. fastball ◴[] No.41887067[source]
This sounds very Effective Altruism.

"If you don't put your money towards the things with the most positive impact you're a bad/sad person".

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13. cynicalpeace ◴[] No.41887266{3}[source]
I didn't say positive impact. What I'm saying is you either think Sam's conniving will work out for him, or it won't. If you think it will, that's very cynical.
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14. throwaway314155 ◴[] No.41889256{4}[source]
Despite what you may think, it isn't inherently illogical to be cynical. In fact, sometimes it's the appropriate point of view. Just the same, viewing the world optimistically is sometimes also viewed as naive.

In any case, the real issue with your logic is in thinking that an individual's personal views on the morality of a situation are correlated with the actual, potentially harsh, reality of that situation. There is rarely ever such a correlation and when it happens, it is likely a coincidence.

Is Sam Altman untrustworthy? Of course, he seems like a snake. That doesn't mean he will fail. And predicting the reality of the thing (that awful people sometimes succeed in this world) does not make someone inherently wrong or negative or even cynical - it just makes them a realist.

15. johnisgood ◴[] No.41897378{5}[source]
I do not disagree.

Modern cash systems involve anonymity and do not inherently keep track of the ownership history of money (as I noted). This anonymity is a fundamental feature of cash and many forms of currency today. Sure, early forms of currency might have functioned in small, close-knit communities and in such contexts, people were more likely to know each other’s social debts and relationships.

My point about cash being anonymous was meant to highlight how modern currency differs from the historical concept of money as a social ledger. This contrast is important because it shows how much the role of money has evolved.