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322 points atomroflbomber | 19 comments | | HN request time: 2.039s | source | bottom
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lelag ◴[] No.36983601[source]
If 2023 ends up giving us AGI, room-temperature superconductors, Starships and a cure for cancer, I think we will able to call it a good year...
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azinman2 ◴[] No.36986942[source]
We’re not getting AGI anytime soon…
replies(6): >>36987177 #>>36987360 #>>36987472 #>>36987477 #>>36987541 #>>36987759 #
AbrahamParangi ◴[] No.36987177[source]
What exactly is your definition of a AGI? Because we’re already passing the Turing test, and so I have to wonder if this isn’t just moving the goalposts.
replies(5): >>36987466 #>>36987583 #>>36988222 #>>36988633 #>>36989206 #
1. cubefox ◴[] No.36987583[source]
ChatGPT (instruction tuned autoregressive language models) indeed already seems quite general (it's good at conversation Turing tests without faking it like ELIZA), even if the absolute intelligence is limited. Level of generality and intelligence is not the same. Something could be quite narrow but very intelligent (AlphaGo) or quite general but dumb overall (small kid, insect).

Okay, ChatGPT is only text-to-text, but Google & Co are adding more modalities now, including images, audio and robotics. I think one missing step is to fuse training and inference regime into one, just as in animals. That probably requires something else than the usual transformer-based token predictors.

replies(6): >>36987787 #>>36987803 #>>36988173 #>>36988756 #>>36988809 #>>36989041 #
2. Demotooodo ◴[] No.36987787[source]
Yepp. I also see puzzle peaces falling in place with multimodal models.

This will be a great strategy very fast.

It shows to be quite good for image generation already

3. phkahler ◴[] No.36987803[source]
>> I think one missing step is to fuse training and inference regime into one, just as in animals.

This has always been an important missing piece. Without it ChatGPT is just a natural language interface to the information it was trained on. Still useful but unable to learn (aside from context).

4. reader5000 ◴[] No.36988173[source]
> I think one missing step is to fuse training and inference regime into one, just as in animals

It's not clear it is one. Sleep is training (replay from hippocampus). Wake is inference.

replies(2): >>36988488 #>>36989917 #
5. cubefox ◴[] No.36988488[source]
Sleep could be for long term memory, but clearly not everything else is "context" (short term memory). Maybe you learn something in the morning which requires you to remember it for >12 hours before you go to bed.
6. tuukkah ◴[] No.36988756[source]
> it's good at conversation Turing tests without faking it like ELIZA

Just like ELIZA can be said to be faking it, ChatGPT is faking it in a different way.

replies(1): >>36997538 #
7. TylerE ◴[] No.36988809[source]
One distinction I would make is that at true AGI should have internet access and be able to query for updated information, instead of being stuck in the time moment it's trained.
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8. NoMoreNicksLeft ◴[] No.36989041[source]
I feel like though I speak the same language as everyone else, at least nominally, none of you are using the same definitions as I do for any of these terms.

AGI was the result of people using the older term "AI" for things that hadn't turned out to be what we thought AI was going to be.

Like alot of technology terms, all of this has its orgins in science fiction, when AI was supposed to be the equivalent of a human mind, but constructed out of something other than meat. The AI would have agency, it would do things... and do them because it wanted to. It would have goals, that it might fail or succeed at. And it would learn... a proper AI might be constructed to know nothing about a particular subject, but it could then go on to learn (on its own without any outside help) all about that topic. Perhaps even to the point of conducting its own original research to learn more. A sufficiently intelligent AI would go on to learn things no human had ever learned, to invent and theorize inventions and theories no human had conceived of.

But then we all realized that intelligence might be severable from those other parts, and we might have an "oracle" that when asked questions could provide sensible answers, but would have no agency. That wouldn't be able to learn in any real way, but since it already knew the sensible answers, that didn't matter.

And at that point, you see AGI start being used. And I assumed it meant "well, that is what we'll call Asimov's robots, or Skynet, or whatever".

Except, here you are again using AGI to mean the dumb oracles that aren't intelligent in any meaningful way.

Like, wtf.

replies(1): >>36998635 #
9. shrimpx ◴[] No.36989054[source]
True AGI should have a personality, tastes, opinions, and feelings; and negotiate its role in a social hierarchy.
replies(1): >>36989590 #
10. oefnak ◴[] No.36989590{3}[source]
Which will obviously be on top.
11. 98codes ◴[] No.36989781[source]
I'd say the opposite -- compare it to us: if you take away our internet we get cranky, but we don't lose all ability to think intelligently.
replies(1): >>36989809 #
12. TylerE ◴[] No.36989809{3}[source]
Imagine if someone took away your speech, hearing, TV, radio, newspaper, and the ability to order new books - you only had access to the knowledge you already have. You're only allowed to communicate via serial terminal, and can only respond, not initiate.
replies(1): >>36998606 #
13. godelski ◴[] No.36989917[source]
> Wake is inference.

I'm not sure how anyone could be this naive. Mammal brains don't have this train mode inference mode. They are both running at all times. If what you said was true, if I taught you something today you wouldn't be able to perform that action till tomorrow. Hell, schools would be an insane concept if this were true. Try to think a bit more before confidently stating an answer.

14. cubefox ◴[] No.36997538[source]
If ChatGPT is faking it, we are faking it. We are not faking it. Therefore ChatGPT isn't faking it.
replies(1): >>36997794 #
15. tuukkah ◴[] No.36997794{3}[source]
We are not doing the same as ChatGPT. For instance: Because of its training, ChatGPT tries to answer like a human. Humans don't try to answer like a human.
replies(1): >>36998588 #
16. cubefox ◴[] No.36998588{4}[source]
We do try to answer in a way that makes us understood by other humans.
17. cubefox ◴[] No.36998596[source]
Bing does that all the time.
18. cubefox ◴[] No.36998606{4}[source]
Bing Chat already accepts images as input. AutoGPT can initiate.
19. cubefox ◴[] No.36998635[source]
GPT-4 is clearly not "dumb".