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688 points hunglee2 | 4 comments | | HN request time: 0.44s | source
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mmastrac ◴[] No.34713024[source]
It's a great story, but it's all unsourced and could be a decent Tom Clancy story at best. You could probably write a similar one with Russia or German agents as the key players and be just as convincing.

The only anchor in reality appears to be Biden suggesting that they knew how to take it out which seems like a pretty weak place to build a large story.

What I find particularly odd is that this entire thing appears to be based on a single, unnamed source "with direct knowledge of the operational planning".

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rsync ◴[] No.34713618[source]
"You could probably write a similar one with Russia ..."

I disagree - there is no credible motive here for Russia and, in fact, the outcome was directly opposed to every outcome they are, or were trying, to achieve.

Not only do I, as a US citizen, believe that the US perpetrated this act but further: I believe it is an overtly hostile action against EU citizens and, particularly, Germans, who will suffer the most economically.

EU states are now buying US natural gas like we always wanted them to. How much pain and suffering were we willing to inflict to make that happen ?

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LarryMullins ◴[] No.34713761[source]
> I believe it is an overtly hostile action against EU citizens and, particularly, Germans, who will suffer the most economically.

In the scenario where America did it, I think there is a strong argument to be made that it was in the long-term interests of EU citizens, despite causing them some short-term discomfort. They never should have started this pipeline project in the first place, buying energy from Russia made the EU weak. Breaking that relationship permanently will make the EU stronger.

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nostromo123 ◴[] No.34716384[source]
America "doing things in the long-term interests of EU citizens, despite causing them some short-term discomfort" is exactly why the US is seen as the baddy in a lot of countries. We are not your children to be nannied and taken decisions on behalf of!
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tiahura ◴[] No.34717666[source]
We are not your children to be nannied and taken decisions on behalf of!

Until you can defend yourselves, you are.

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1. ClumsyPilot ◴[] No.34718457[source]
Sick of hearing this BS.

Who can invade EU, Russia after their showing in Ukraine? China from half the world away?

EU militaries have multiple times the budget of the RU army.

We don't need 11 carriers to defend ourselves.

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2. dralley ◴[] No.34719160[source]
Ukraine, in January 2022, had more tanks than Germany, France, and the UK combined.

They had more air defense than Germany, France, and the UK combined, though the systems were not quite as capable individually.

They had nearly as many active duty military as Germany, France, and the UK combined, and a huge number of reservists with experience fighting in the War in Donbass against Russian military and paramilitary forces with tanks and artillery, as opposed to jihadists with no real heavy weapons of any kind.

Their airforce was mostly comparable in size to any one of the above, though again not as capable qualitatively.

And they had a hell of a lot more artillery and artillery shells than Germany, France, and the UK combined. By a massive margin, although again not quite as capable individually. Nearly all of the NATO-standard artillery ammunition that has been provided to Ukraine has come from US stockpiles, because at the rate Ukraine consumes artillery ammo Germany, France, and the UK would be collectively tapped out in about 10 days. Not to mention HIMARS ammunition.

The Russians were also rather handicapped by the reckless, arrogant stupidity of their plan and extreme secrecy resulting in soldiers selling their fuel rations for alcohol, because until a day or two beforehand they thought was all a bunch of western lies because that's what the government was saying publicly. With the result that a bunch of vehicles ran out of fuel halfway to Kyiv. Had the invasion been done according to doctrine rather than as what they expected to be an immediate victory as the Ukrainians laid down their arms, awed by their superior military power, the story may still have turned out very different.

Anyway, Ukraine had, by a very significant margin, the largest military in Europe excluding Russia, and certainly the most experienced in fighting "real" wars. Take this into consideration when boasting about how easily the rest of Europe would be able to handle a Russian invasion.

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3. ClumsyPilot ◴[] No.34722314[source]
> Ukraine had, by a very significant margin, the largest military in Europe

Italy has a much more capable armoured force than Ukraine did at the time.

You are comparing T64s, vehicles designed in 1951 to modern vehicles? How do you think they are performing when it comes to firing on the move, engaging at night, accuracy, survivability?

Tanks newer than T64 have been long retired to reserve in Europe. There are many IFVs today capable of putting holes in T64s' in service today.

> The Russians were also rather handicapped by the reckless, arrogant stupidity of their plan

Such disrespect! Russia is an exemplary conservative society with traditional values!

Europe is 27 countries, not 3. Its's half a billion people. Europe combined has more operational vehicles than Russia does. Has a larger standing army than Russia does. A much better air force, and relies on it for air defence, not on ground-based missiles.

I never said 'easilly' but imagining that Russia can occupy half a billion people is downright crazy

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4. dralley ◴[] No.34722966{3}[source]
While the T-64 is an old tank, the ones Ukraine have have been upgraded several times. And I wouldn't count out their capabilities.

I'm sure the Italians are very capable but they've never demonstrated holding off a tank force 8x their size.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/03/31/ukraines-be...

Whether the Russians can occupy successfully isn't the point, they can do a ton of damage in a short amount of time, not to mention the torture and rape.