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544 points josh2600 | 9 comments | | HN request time: 1.042s | source | bottom
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Geee ◴[] No.26715348[source]
There are 250 million units of mobilecoin, and majority of them are owned by the founders. Only 37.5 million have been distributed. With current price ($65), they're worth $14B already. This makes the project a scam and impossible for it to work as a reliable money that holds value. Bitcoin had no pre-mine and has been fairly distributed from the start.
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CynicusRex ◴[] No.26717384[source]
No “pre-mine” doesn't mean fairly distributed. Bitcoin is a multi-level marketing pyramid scheme as well. Early adopters mine or buy large proportions at negligible prices while late adopters mine or buy negligible proportions at large prices.
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anonporridge ◴[] No.26717496[source]
By this definition, every company stock is a multi-level marketing pyramid scheme.

In fact, company stock is WAY worse, because the majority of people are legally prohibited from investing in private companies unless they're an accredited investor (already rich). So, only rich people (other than founders and early employees) are allowed to buy in at super low prices before handing off the bag to the public.

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PragmaticPulp ◴[] No.26717629[source]
This is incorrect. Stock represents actual ownership of a scarce resource (a company). That company would have value whether or not it was explicitly sold as a stock. The value doesn’t come from the stock.

Cryptocurrency removes the underlying asset and simply sells shares of artificial scarcity. It’s only as valuable as what people decide to trade it at, because it doesn’t represent ownership of anything other than itself.

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doggosphere ◴[] No.26717864[source]
Stock represents actual ownership of a scarce resource (a company).

Is there a limit to how many shares a company can issue? No, a board can technically issue shares unto infinity. There is no guarantee of scarcity, no guarantee they will not raise more money.

That company would have value whether or not it was explicitly sold as a stock. The value doesn’t come from the stock.

So when a company has no profit but a high valuation, is this the market correctly discounting future predicted cashflows and giving a company fair value, or is it some sort of scam? Ex: Is NKLA actually a $5.2b electric vehicle company? How about the spade of Chinese IPOs that ended up being vaporware?

Cryptocurrency removes the underlying asset and simply sells shares of artificial scarcity.

The scarcity isn't artificial. It's mathematically provable, open source and auditable. If you think you can manufacture "fake" btc on the blockchain, feel free to try. If you think you can successfully fork and create a whole new chain, you're also welcome to try.

It’s only as valuable as what people decide to trade it at, because it doesn’t represent ownership of anything other than itself.

This is actually factual for anything in existence. A piece of bread. A $100m painting. You're starting to figure out what peculiar creatures humans are.

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PragmaticPulp ◴[] No.26717906[source]
> Is there a limit to how many shares a company can issue? No, a board can technically issue shares unto infinity. There is no guarantee of scarcity, no guarantee they will not raise more money.

The scarce asset is the company, not the shares. Yes, they can issue more shares, but those shares still represent the same company plus the new investment money raised by raising the shares. They're not creating more company out of thin air when they issue more shares.

EDIT: To clarify some misconceptions in the comments below: When a company sells more shares into the market they are not simply diluting away existing shareholders. The keyword is that they are selling shares, meaning they take money in exchange for shares. The company's value increases by the amount of money they take in exchange for the sale.

Example: If a company is worth $1,000,000 and has 1,000,000 shares outstanding, each share is worth $1. If the company decides to sell another 100,000 shares and the market buys them at $1/each, there are now 1,100,000 shares outstanding and the company is now worth $1,100,000 because they took in $100,000 of cash via share sales. Existing shareholders have not lost any money or value.

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blackearl ◴[] No.26717976[source]
It doesn't matter if it represents the company because the thing that shareholders care about is how much $ each share represents. This is why a stock will tank when a company talks about diluting their existing shares by creating new shares out of thin air. What you're talking about would be more akin to a stock split.
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1. PragmaticPulp ◴[] No.26718116[source]
When a company sells more shares, they money they raise from selling those shares contributes to the value of the company.

If a company sells 100,000 shares at a dollar each, the company is now worth $100,000 more because they now have another $100,000 on their balance sheet. No value is lost in this process.

> This is why a stock will tank when a company talks about diluting their existing shares by creating new shares out of thin air.

Companies can't just declare that more shares exist and dilute away shareholders like you said. They either issue them as stock based compensation, which is an expense, or they sell the shares to buyers, which means money goes toward their bottom line.

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2. blackearl ◴[] No.26718146[source]
Value is lost to existing shareholders who have the value of their shares diluted. Everything you're saying may seem logical, but economics is often illogical and any 1:1 $:stock sales still tank the share price.
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3. PragmaticPulp ◴[] No.26718170[source]
> Value is lost to existing shareholders who have the value of their shares diluted.

You're confusing percentage dilution with absolute diluation.

The shares represent the value of the company. The value of the company has increased by the amount of money raised. Each share represents a lower percentage of the company, but this is offset by the fact that the value of the company has increased by the amount of money raised. The shares have not been diluted on an absolute value scale.

Owning 10% of a company worth $1mm is the same value as owning 5% of a company worth $2mm.

If you own 10% of a $1mm company that raises another $1mm by selling more shares, you now own 5% of a 2mm company. Your percentage ownership is diluted, but your value has not been stolen.

This is basic pre- and post-investment math. Shareholders are diluted on a percentage basis, but not on an absolute basis.

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4. doggosphere ◴[] No.26718362{3}[source]
Assuming all shares are equal in class, voting power is diluted.
5. blackearl ◴[] No.26718641{3}[source]
You continue to make a 1:1 assumption. Dilution can cause the stock to go down because of FUD of financial health. It can go up because of strong leadership and optimistic futures. It's not occurring in a vacuum where $1 is 1 share and +$1 to company worth.
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6. Spivak ◴[] No.26719517{4}[source]
Yes but a company doing something that causes the market to value shares less isn’t dilution. The fact that you know how the market will respond to companies raising capital by issuing new shares doesn’t change the legality of it.
7. ALittleLight ◴[] No.26719561{4}[source]
But raising money might also cause the stock to go up, right? More investment signals confidence and planned growth. More people may want to buy in.

Issuing new shares is not always a good move and sometimes it might cause investors to lose money and percentage ownership, but sometimes it might be a good move and result in investors gaining money (though still getting their ownership diluted).

8. erik_seaberg ◴[] No.26719838{3}[source]
I don't really care about how much of the balance sheet I could lay claim to during a liquidation. That's going to be pennies on the dollar, or nothing.

I care how much of future profits will be returned to be, which does depends on the percentage I end up owning. A round needs to enable a bigger gain than the fraction it dilutes everyone.

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9. xorcist ◴[] No.26723307{4}[source]
That would very much depend on what you're buying stock in. Holding companies and investment companies are mostly valued to what your "share" of their holdings is worth. Real estate too.