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Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

(cleantechnica.com)
131 points mg | 10 comments | 26 Mar 21 20:07 UTC | HN request time: 0.465s | source | bottom
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zizee ◴[26 Mar 21 23:02 UTC] No.26598033[source]▶
I think the future will be robust national/international grids, with a mixture of storage options (batteries/pumped hydro) to smooth out the intermittent nature of wind and solar.

Cynics always talk about the amount of energy storage required for solar as if you need to store 24 hours of energy for solar/wind to be viable.

I'd like to see numbers on having 1 hour of storage for peak demand, a robust national grid, and appropriately provisioned and placed solar and wind, taking the duck curve into consideration.

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manfredo ◴[26 Mar 21 23:27 UTC] No.26598222[source]▶
Even achieving just one hour of storage globally amounts to 2.5 TWh of storage. By comparison the entire world produces ~300 GWh worth of lithium ion battery annually. That leaves geographically limited options like pumped hydroelectricity, and solutions not yet deployed at any significant scale like hydrogen fuel cells, synthetic methane, thermal batteries, flywheels, etc.

Realistically we should saturate daytime energy demand with solar, and if there aren't any scalable storage options by then switch gears and proceed with hydroelectric where it's viable and nuclear where it's not.

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pydry ◴[27 Mar 21 00:06 UTC] No.26598481[source]▶
>Even achieving just one hour of storage globally amounts to 2.5 TWh of storage. By comparison the entire world produces ~300 GWh worth of lithium ion battery

What's the point of this comparison?

Lithium ion batteries are probably the least cost effective means of dealing with intermittency. It's also rare that the entire world is without wind and sun simultaneously.

In terms of cost:

Demand shaping < overproduction < pumped storage < < lithium ion batteries

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1. Manfredo_1 ◴[27 Mar 21 01:23 UTC] No.26598979[source]▶
"Demand shaping" is a nice euphemism for energy shortages. And if we demand shaping we're just externalizing the cost to consumers that need to buy their own energy storage or change their energy usage patterns to accommodate the unreliable supply.

Overproduction helps but doesn't eliminate intermittency. And pumped hydroelectricity is geographically dependent. The irony is that most places with extensive hydroelectric storage potential don't need wind and solar in the first place because they get their energy from hydroelectric generation.

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2. asdfasgasdgasdg ◴[27 Mar 21 01:30 UTC] No.26599023[source]▶
There is always a shortage of electricity. Someone could always use more if it were free to do so. Economics is the study of the allocation of resources in the face of scarcity -- that is, all allocation of resources except perhaps breathable air. There's no need for a euphemism here because limitations on the consumption of energy are ever-present -- demand shaping is simply about making the signal stronger.
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3. crummy ◴[27 Mar 21 01:32 UTC] No.26599033[source]▶
Isn't demand shaping things like discounts during certain periods? My electricity provider lets me set a 'free hour of power' every day, as long as that hour is off peak.
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4. Manfredo_1 ◴[27 Mar 21 01:33 UTC] No.26599041[source]▶
There are rarely shortages of electricity in the US. There were some in California during Covid, and the state had to do rolling blackouts. But no, there are rarely shortages of electricity.

Yes, someone could use more of it than we could supply. But they don't. The existing supply is sufficient to meet demand. And when demand changes, we are capable of increasing supply.

5. Manfredo_1 ◴[27 Mar 21 01:35 UTC] No.26599050[source]▶
Yes, those incentives exist to try and shape demand. But in practice, people rarely take advantage of them. And some things really can't be shaped. The pumps that deliver your water cannot have their demand shaped, unless you're willing to go without running water for some hours of the day.
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6. panarky ◴[27 Mar 21 01:57 UTC] No.26599155{3}[source]▶
If we paid the true cost of peak power, it might be worth pumping water with off-peak power and storing it locally.
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7. Manfredo_1 ◴[27 Mar 21 03:03 UTC] No.26599542{4}[source]▶
Then our transition to solar + wind needs to include the cost of installing a septic tank and water reservoir in every household. And a thermal battery for heating. And an electric battery for lighting. And all the other things we'll need to do to accommodate an unreliable energy grid.
8. Qwertious ◴[27 Mar 21 03:19 UTC] No.26599617[source]▶
>to accommodate the unreliable supply.

You're conflating "expensive" with "unreliable". Even with infinite batteries, buying stored energy will always be more expensive than direct solar/wind.

9. pydry ◴[27 Mar 21 11:04 UTC] No.26601431[source]▶
>Demand shaping" is a nice euphemism for energy shortages.

It's a euphemism for storage heaters, storage air-conditioning, aluminium smelters that dial usage up and down and smart car chargers.

Lithium ion batteries are useful too, of course, but they cost more.

This is a problem where market based solutions shine. The only reason that fact isn't getting rammed down our throats by lobbyists is that the people who got religion about markets tended to be oil/gas people, who have since been thrashing the "renewables are unreliable" drum.

>Overproduction helps but doesn't eliminate intermittency.

Why should the goal be to eliminate it when we can adapt to it and thrive?

Personally, I'm more excited for applications of periodic free/-ve priced electricity than I am worried about shortages.

10. pydry ◴[27 Mar 21 12:15 UTC] No.26601771{3}[source]▶
>in practice, people rarely take advantage of them

Overproduction is still not that common. These days wind and solar mostly just provide power that would have otherwise been produced by natural gas even when operating at peak capacity.

It is getting off the ground though. The UK has an energy tarriff popular with electric car owners for this reason. They can occasionally get paid to charge their cars. This type of thing will only become more common.

>And some things really can't be shaped.

Obviously not. Nonetheless pretending that all renewable intermittency has to be made up for with expensive lithium ion batteries is backwards thinking.