Edit: Changed hydroxyquinone to the correct hydroxychloroquine.
Edit: Changed hydroxyquinone to the correct hydroxychloroquine.
To give an answer to this endless debate, a proper, randomized clinical trial is needed. And the conditions set correctly, too: lopinavir and ritonavir were, per NEJM, not successful, but a later study in Lancet showed that administration at earlier time points (within 7 days of symptom onset) might be working and needs more investigation.
I know Novartis is running a trial, and so is U of Minnesota[1] which has finally completed enrollment and will release results after peer review.
Oh, and more on topic, it looks like Twitter has blocked a legitimate page of the Canadian part of the same group of trials[2].
[2] https://twitter.com/DrToddLee/status/1261442201369939968
It doesn't work that way. New drugs are assumed ineffective until proven otherwise. A government official with no medical training recommending an unproven drug based on a few anecdotes is the height of irresponsibility.
I would say HCQ is a "lead" in the pharmacological sense (after all there's an effect in vitro), but of course there's no guarantee it will work properly (work as in "higher efficacy than placebo or other treatments") in vivo.
The reason for my comment is that the announcement by the "government official" (who was not the first, the first being the eccentric Dr.Raoult) turned what should have been scientific debate into a political flamefest (at least in the media). And science (aka, proper, randomized clinical trials) got lost in the way (at some point the U of Minnesota trial struggled to get new people).
I personally don't have any particular love for HCQ: chances are, like remedisivir, that if there is an effect, it is small. But I want to point out that so far science is still out on this one.
Agreed. I hope it gets proven effective too. This is a hot button issue for me because a family member needs HCQ for lupus and now cannot obtain it because of the statements of said government official. His words have caused actual harm, and this isn't the first time.
[1] https://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/no-benefit-fro...
The positive studies suffer from the same issues, by the way. Especially controls are pretty bad.
These studies can't give the answers that a proper randomized controlled trial (against placebo), like the U of Minnesota one (but there are a few others) can.
Some studies focus on mortality, but I doubt HCQ helps there: like remedisivir, the measure should be time to symptom clearance / hospital discharge. Time of administration also matters a lot (see again the NEJM paper on lopinavir / ritonavir, a failure, then the Lancet paper that gives more insight at earlier time points). One study I've read gave HCQ at 16 days post symptom onset (median): that time is definitely too late for any antiviral therapy.
I reiterate: I have no personal interest in having HCQ succeed. What I want to see is good science.