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Prediction markets barely make money; sportsbooks make money

(www.ft.com)
4 points cl42 | 1 comments | 20 Dec 25 21:26 UTC | HN request time: 0.241s | source
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AGsist ◴[20 Dec 25 22:21 UTC] No.46340193[source]▶
One structural difference seems to be incentive alignment. Sportsbooks monetize volume and friction, while prediction markets depend on sustained liquidity and accurate pricing, which is much harder to maintain at scale. It feels less like a failure of the idea and more a mismatch between economic incentives and market expectations.
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cl42 ◴[20 Dec 25 22:50 UTC] No.46340400[source]▶
The article talks about how prediction markets' sports books are significantly more profitable. This has less to do with financial structures and more to do with who wants to make bets and where.

According to the article, prediction markets make magnitudes more money on potentially illegal (by today's standards in the US, anyway) sports betting than true event contracts.

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1. AGsist ◴[21 Dec 25 00:14 UTC] No.46341000[source]▶
That’s a fair point. I agree the current profitability is largely driven by demand patterns and regulatory arbitrage rather than pure market design. My comment was more about why the underlying event-contract model struggles to scale sustainably, even when interest exists.