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129 points mpweiher | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0.41s | source
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laurencerowe ◴[] No.46249638[source]
It's hard to see how non-dispatchable generation like nuclear can be competitive in Northern European markets dominated by intermittent wind power. So much wind capacity has already been built in Denmark that it sometimes meets 100% of electricity demand. Britain will be there soon, certainly long before substantial numbers of new nuclear reactors could conceivably be built.

I suspect the UK will only build the nuclear capacity required to keep the industry around on national security grounds.

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apatheticonion ◴[] No.46252080[source]
Keep in mind the energy vs electricity "gochya".

Australia, for instance, powers 40% of its electricity with renewables.

However, electricity makes up ~20% of _total_ energy consumption which means renewables made up 9% of _total_ energy production.

As the electrification of transport, industry, manufacturing, etc proceeds, the demand for electricity will increase (in the case of Australia, we need to 5x our electricity production).

Ironically, legislators are disincentivized from stimulating electrification as getting to 100% renewable electricity production is easier when electricity is only 20% of our energy usage.

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1. laurencerowe ◴[] No.46252795[source]
Energy consumption does not equal useful work though. Much of that non-electrical energy consumption is wasted, e.g. car engines are only about 30% efficient and heat pumps can provide 3-5x the amount of warmth compared to the electrical input required to run. So we’re probably looking at around a 2x increase in electricity consumption rather than 5x.
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2. locallost ◴[] No.46254404[source]
Add to it the fact that things get more and more efficient, it's questionable if even a 2x increase is in the cards. The EU has added 10 million EVs in the last decade and total electricity consumption hasn't gone up at all. Norway's car sales are majority EV since around five years and over 90% now, and total consumption of electricity went up around 10%.

It could be, for the EU not Norway at least, that there was a consumption uptick but it's hidden because people charge their cars with their own solar panels. But even this is indicative of how the grid will work in the future.