Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

One thing this really highlights to me is how often the "boring" takes end up being the most accurate. The provocative, high-energy threads are usually the ones that age the worst.

If an LLM were acting as a kind of historian revisiting today’s debates with future context, I’d bet it would see the same pattern again and again: the sober, incremental claims quietly hold up, while the hyperconfident ones collapse.

Something like "Lithium-ion battery pack prices fall to $108/kWh" is classic cost-curve progress. Boring, steady, and historically extremely reliable over long horizons. Probably one of the most likely headlines today to age correctly, even if it gets little attention.

On the flip side, stuff like "New benchmark shows top LLMs struggle in real mental health care" feels like high-risk framing. Benchmarks rotate constantly, and “struggle” headlines almost always age badly as models jump whole generations.

I bet theres many "boring but right" takes we overlook today and I wondr if there's a practical way to surface them before hindsight does

The one about LLMs and mental health is not a prediction but a current news report, the way you phrased it.

Also, the boring consistent progress case for AI plays out in the end of humans as viable economic agents requiring a complete reordering of our economic and political systems in the near future. So the “boring but right” prediction today is completely terrifying.