Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

Looking at the results and the prompt, I would tweak the prompt to

* ignore comments that do not speculate on something that was unknown or had not achieved consensus as of the date of yyyy-mm-dd

* at the same time, exclude speculations for which there still isn’t a definitive answer or consensus today

* ignore comments that speculate on minor details or are stating a preference/opinion on a subjective matter

* it is ok to generate an empty list of users for a thread if there are no comments meeting the speculation requirements laid out above

* etc

You would also need to exclude “predictions” for things which already happened at the time they were predicted.

Good points. To summarize: for a given comment, one presumably must downselect to the ones that can reasonably be interpreted as forecasts. I see some indicators that the creator of the project (despite his amazing reputation) skated over this part.

Agreed. I feel like it's more just a collection of good comments. It doesn't surprise me to see tptacek, patio11, etc there. I think the "prediction" aspect is under weighted.

But it reminds me that I miss Manishearth's comments! What ever happened to him? I recall him being a big rust contributor. I'd think he'd be all over the place, with rust's adoption since then. I also liked tokenadult. interesting blast from the past.