It's best to stick to UUIDv7 because of such quirks of ULID.
It's best to stick to UUIDv7 because of such quirks of ULID.
I think this "sort of monotonic but not really" is the worst of both to be honest. It tempts you to treat it like an invariant when it isn't.
If you want monotonicity with independent generation, just use a composite key that's a lamport clock and a random nonce. Or if you want to be even more snazzy use Hybrid Logical Clocks or similar.
I concede I'm no mathematician and I could be wrong here, but your analysis feels similar to assuming 10-11-12-13-14-15 is less likely to be a winning lottery ticket because the odds against consecutive numbers are so massive.
My basic point is the probability of collision is lower than the birthday bound, there's no need for this, and as comments in this thread make clear people are not understanding this limitation even exists with the specification.
Ok then, make it easy - your requirement is to independently pick 4 numbers from the range 0 to 9, without resulting in any duplicates. Which is more likely to be successful:
- pick 4 random digits independently
- pick a random digit, which will be appended by the next digit as pick #2 (i.e. if you pick 5, then 6 will automatically be your second digit, if you pick 9, 0 will be your second digit). Then pick once more on the same terms.
The math here is easy: scenario 1 you have 0.9 x 0.8 x 0.7 = 0.504 likelihood of success. Scenario 2 it's simply 0.7.