←back to thread

3337 points keepamovin | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
Show context
iambateman ◴[] No.46207321[source]
This was a fun little lark. Great idea!

It’s interesting to notice how bad AI is at gaming out a 10-year future. It’s very good at predicting the next token but maybe even worse than humans—who are already terrible—at making educated guesses about the state of the world in a decade.

I asked Claude: “Think ten years into the future about the state of software development. What is the most likely scenario?” And the answer it gave me was the correct answer for today and definitely not a decade into the future.

This is why it’s so dangerous to ask an LLM for personal advice of any kind. It isn’t trained to consider second-order effects.

Thanks for the thought experiment!

replies(7): >>46207366 #>>46207493 #>>46207650 #>>46207837 #>>46207954 #>>46208746 #>>46215784 #
1. kbelder ◴[] No.46208746[source]
A while back I gave it a prompt, something like, "I'm a historian from the far future. Please give me a documentary-style summary of the important political and cultural events of the decade of the 1980s."

It did ok, then I kept asking for "Now, the 1990s?" and kept going into future decades. "Now, the 2050s?" It made some fun extrapolations.

replies(1): >>46209520 #
2. LordDragonfang ◴[] No.46209520[source]
Assuming it was through the chatgpt interface, you can share an anonymized link to the chat if you want to show it off (I'd certainly be curious).