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Estimates are difficult for developers and product owners

(thorsell.io)
225 points todsacerdoti | 1 comments | 07 Dec 25 19:17 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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jph ◴[07 Dec 25 19:58 UTC] No.46184595[source]▶
When teams don't need strong estimates, then Kanban works well.

When teams do need strong estimates, then the best way I know is doing a project management ROPE estimate, which uses multiple perspectives to improve the planning.

https://github.com/SixArm/project-management-rope-estimate

R = Realistic estimate. This is based on work being typical, reasonable, plausible, and usual.

O = Optimistic estimate. This is based on work turning out to be notably easy, or fast, or lucky.

P = Pessimistic estimate. This is based on work turning out to be notably hard, or slow, or unlucky.

E = Equilibristic estimate. This is based on success as 50% likely such as for critical chains and simulations.

replies(4): >>46184658 #>>46184788 #>>46185046 #>>46185692 #
torginus ◴[07 Dec 25 22:06 UTC] No.46185692[source]▶
This sounds like that if you don't trust a fortune teller, you can mitigate it by going to 4 different fortune tellers, and then somehow combining their predictions into your much more certain future.
replies(1): >>46196739 #
1. jph ◴[08 Dec 25 19:50 UTC] No.46196739[source]▶
Yes except in practice it's worked out more like this... Realistic is favored by tech teams. Optimistic is favored by salespeople and marketers. Pessimistic is favored by lawyers and compliance people. Equilibristic is favored by project managers and military.

Each stakeholder gets the kind of fortune they want. The important aspect (to me) is that the four viewpoints show all the stakeholders that their viewpoints are quite different.