I've heard the same claim every year since GPT-3.
It's still just as irrational as it was then.
They're already far faster than anybody on HN could ever be. Whether it takes another five years or ten, in that span of time nobody on HN will be able to keep up with the top tier models. It's not irrational, it's guaranteed. The progress has been extraordinary and obvious, the direction is certain, the outcome is certain. All that is left is to debate whether it's a couple of years or closer to a decade.
Ok and they were wrong, but now people are right that it is great at coding.
> That has continued to be the case in every generation.
If something gets better over time, it is definitionally true that it was bad for every case in the past until it becomes good. But then it is good.
Thats how that works. For everything. You are talking in tautologies while not understanding the implication of your arguments and how it applies to very general things like "A thing that improves over time".