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126 points petermcneeley | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0.001s | source
1. rixed ◴[] No.46194516[source]
I think we are too quick to believe this move is motivated by the threat of Russia suddenly unleashing hordes of tanks over Europe, so here is some data. Let's compare Russia's forces with that of Germany+Poland+UK+France+Italy+Spain (EU countries with a large population):

  Total population: RU=140M, EU=370M

  Population available for mil: RU=70M, EU=170M

  Present active mil: RU=1.3M, EU=1M

  Reserve: RU=2M, EU=1.4M

  Paramil: RU=250k, EU=380k

  Combat Aircrafts: RU=4k, EU=4k

  Tanks: RU=5.7k, EU=2k

  Armored Vhc: RU=130k, EU=340k

  Artillery: RU=16k, EU=2k

  Large combat vessels: RU=100, EU=80

  Subs: RU=60, EU=40

The economics is more hairy to compare directly because there are so many parameters. The most stringent ones seems to be that RU has a lot of fiul, gaz and coal and an industrial network spread accross a vast land that's not easy to target, and of course a seemingly good relationship with China. Apart from that, I don't think the EU is partcularly weak as far as finance and manufacturing are concerned.

Looking at those numbers, I do not believe that the sentiment that "Russia is going to invade the EU unless massive expenses in weaponry" holds a lot of water.

The tremendous amount of efforts and finance that's been thrown at the military during the cold war was not aimed at invading the other side.

I would even add that spending that much on the military is probably what the strategists in the Kremlin are hopping EU will do. After all, if they know the history of their own country, they must know what caused the fatal financial crisis that brought down the USSR in the 80s.

replies(1): >>46197132 #
2. Ylpertnodi ◴[] No.46197132[source]
> The most stringent ones seems to be that RU has a lot of fiul, gaz and coal and an industrial network spread accross a vast land that's not easy to target,

Very recent Ukrainian drone self-defences prove otherwise - far away russian refineries are not so far away anymore. And, are very difficult to defend. Throw in an additional few partisans to mess up the railway system (russian lifeline) and I rather suspect a coup to happen soon.