Paramount launches hostile bid for Warner Bros

Sounds like Paramount bosses are bidding in anger.

They tilt like everyone else - maybe the chaos and mayhem behind the last few years of this industry mean the old guard is finally failing, and we'll see meaningful copyright reform and sanity in our lifetime.

> and we'll see meaningful copyright reform

Are you betting on the content conglomerate bidding tens of billions, or the nepo baby LBO shop wearing the corpse of a movie studio as a salmon hat to spur copyright reform?

> we'll see meaningful copyright reform and sanity in our lifetime.

I think there is a better chance of the state collapsing than there is of seeing meaningful IP reform

I think the political angle of this should not be discounted

  we'll see meaningful copyright reform and sanity in our lifetime.

That seems wildly naive... gestures broadly at world

The state collapsing might effectively be copyright reform at the same time though so there's that?

The rest of the world is the one thing that gives me hope in this regard, really.

It feels like year by year, Asia, even China, is becoming more and more culturally relevant. Western media is just too damn stagnant.

Hollywood used to be known as possibly the most important cultural powerhouse history has seen. It might still be that, but it certainly doesn't feel like it anymore.

Or maybe I'm just getting old.

I mean it's not even politics in the way most people think about it—like this is just blatant corruption. Trump moved in and said this is my swamp.

We're not even gonna get a good investigative journalism podcast about the corruption because it's just right there in front of you. There's not much to uncover.

> year by year, Asia, even China, is becoming more and more culturally relevant

And powerful export sectors.

Paramount is dead?

> Paramount is dead?

Paramount broke its tradition of barely treading water [1] in 2023 by booking multibillion cable losses [2] before being acquired in a de facto LBO [3] at half the price it traded at in 2005 [4]. (90% off its 2021 peak, though that may have been meme-y.)

Paramount Skydance–the one bidding for Warner–has $15bn of debt on $600mm operating cash flow supporting $15bn of equity trading above book value while still posting losses [5].

It's not dead. But it's at least necrotic.

[1] https://tradingeconomics.com/cbs:us:net-income

[2] https://www.filmtake.com/distribution/paramounts-financial-t...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_Skydance

[4] https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/para/history/

[5] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PSKY/key-statistics/

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46000977 ("Larry Ellison discussed axing CNN hosts with White House in takeover bid talks (theguardian.com)")

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46048351 ("Larry Ellison Met with Trump to Discuss Which CNN Reporters They Plan to Fire (techdirt.com)")

Viewing this acquisition in terms of simple revenue alone is like positing Musk bought Twitter for its ad revenue. Total information control is priceless.

(In case anyone hasn't kept up with the plutocratic oligarchy in the US: Oracle's Larry Ellison currently owns Paramount (since July 2024), and Warner Bros. Entertainment owns CNN. This isn't explained in the CNBC OP: David Ellison is Larry's son and the token CEO).

I think it gives Netflix an advantage. When it comes up in front of a judge he'll note the obvious conflict of interest and Trump's idiotic pronouncements, like the fact that he said he will be personally involved, and rule for Netflix.

The political angle is the whole ball game

HA hardly. Balance that against two of the top four streaming platforms (youtube, hbo, disney, netflix) trying to merge, probably should worry about some anti-trust there, but not under this administration.

> Total information control is priceless.

Except there is robust competition in media —be it news, social, etc.

I think the political angle in terms of motivation is overstated. In terms of closing the deal though, it’s huge. David Ellison has been producing movies for quite some time. So his desire to become a big time player in that space would be a believable motivation. But he can use his father’s connections to Trump to sink the Netflix bid (or create enough FUD to convince shareholders to favor his bid).

> Except there is robust competition in media —be it news, social, etc.

As of a few years ago, there were six corporations owning 90% of US media: NewsCorp, TimeWarner, Comcast, Disney, Viacom, Sony.

* https://www.reddit.com/r/coolguides/comments/fs5g0b/more_tha...

* https://techstartups.com/2020/09/18/6-corporations-control-9...

Add to that local channel ownership (like Sinclair) concentration:

* https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/media-consolidation-me...

* https://www.vox.com/2018/4/6/17202824/sinclair-tribune-map

* https://www.tvtechnology.com/news/broadcasters-urge-fcc-to-h...

This is especially true when it comes to investigative journalism, where it may take weeks or months to run down leads and information.

One can only wish to have that amount of money to bid in anger.

Some context:

"Affinity Partners, the private equity firm led by Jared Kushner, is part of Paramount's hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros Discovery, according to a regulatory filing."

https://www.axios.com/2025/12/08/jared-kushner-paramount-war...

Thank you, I had no idea how this was politically related, and honestly cannot keep track of all the corruption these days anyways. How does anyone? This is pretty much a genuine question.

They've just about said as much. They thought they had a friendly bid in the works just before WB announced a more exclusive friendly bidding process with Netflix. Definitely some drama going on there.

always has been

Don't worry, it's other peoples' money.

they snoozed they losed

are executives breathing? then there is corruption. start following the money and you'll find it, we're in the new gilded age

This will go to SCOTUS, which typically gives the administration preferential treatment. The US's current level of corruption is way too high to assume your scenario.

The dark side of all this is a propaganda network.

The government and who runs it should not be in business I'm sorry. This isn't free markets, it's manipulation and corruption.

Stage AGs have a strong role to play in anti-trust law. And the other party they're suing _isnt_ a Federal agency this time.

Now maybe nothing matters. But conflicts of interest will come up in those cases. Trump doesn't win _everything_. Trump wins at places where the Supreme Court is using him for their own project of reworking the constitutional order. Basically Trump shoots up a volley with some absolutely batshit PoV, they interpret the topic in some saner (still crazy) right wing legal idea. And the Supreme Court fast track's these cases about executive power.

This case would be State AGs having independent standing to challenge major M&A.

It will drag things out at a minimum, in a way the Supreme Court's rapid resolution of executive branch cases is not dragged out.

Much like you also have a robust choice of cereals at the supermarket.

This really isn’t the free market, this is de facto cartels when like 90% of media properties are owned by 3 or 4 companies.

We need some kind of independent anti-corruption agency, like the one we told Ukraine they had to have to receive aid.

This is what happens in markets without a functional regulatory body - when the regulator turns into a market participant. It’s closer to a jungle than anything else.

How does one learn to think about companies buying each other. It’s counterintuitive to me for an entity with stock to buy stock in another entity which could itself own stock in the first.

The way you write it I can’t see why WB would be allowed to sell itself when it makes the most sense for Patamount to go bankrupt some time from now and be split up amongst US media; Netflix/HBO/Disney/Peacock

You're missing the key part. The Paramount deal includes billions in Saudi money funneled through the President's son in law.

China rising should not comfort anyone except Xi. They are all about raw power.

Uncle Saud yes, Uncle Sam, no. You think Kushner won’t find a way to invest your tax money into himself?

> This is what happens in markets without a functional regulatory body

It's almost more that we have semi-functional regulation. Trump's influence over this transaction entirely stems from his antitrust powers.

Didn't that anti-corruption agency end up being corrupt too? Hard to follow all this stuff.

I'm hoping that they're sufficiently absurd in their mere existence to spur questions among the electorate. "Hey, that looks weird, and not right. Maybe we should fix that!"

Yeah, I know, way too optimistic.

"all" is a high standard. This issue has been in the news for awhile. Read a major, serious news source like The Economist or NY Times.

All independent agencies are dead, according to SCOTUS fiat. If we want anything to survive they'll have to be rebuilt, either with an enlarged court that won't strike them down again, or as section 1 agencies that Congress has to power directly (which will also be hugely corrupt). Either that or an amendment that creates a branch that straddles the legislative and executive, to be truly independent.

It wasnt US, it was EU who did that, then gave us visa free travel and a few BN for it. Then monitored the whole thing and imlementation of it.

Anticorruption agency head cant be removed even by parliament vote, not even the executive.

But then again, every governmemt and political person has their taxes published by default

Nah, they are fine. They ate head of presidents office alive last week.

Add: it's also not one anticorruption agency, but the whole bunch of them -- law enforcement one (think of FBI, but investigating corruption in government), special prosecutors office, another agency monitoring assets of anyone close enough to government (including immigration officers on a country level) and their family and a whole separate court with judges vetted by independent panel.

It's elections of Doge of Venice level of indirection.

What matters is if paramount can pony up enough money to buy. Stores don't reject your cash even if you are debt.

Yes I know, sorry should have clarified my sarcasm :)

The Bulwark is fairly on top of the pillaging that's happening in the US government.

The news are flooded with these stories, for anyone who cares, but I imagine what we don't know is even more shocking.

We're more likely to get government by "honest AI" than for that to happen.

> "Nah, they are fine. They ate head of presidents office alive last week."

That's the same guy who tried to take over that anti-corruption office. He would be controlling it now, if it weren't for the massive country-wide protests about it. I'm not sure that they're doing fine.

Economist, July 2025:

> "On July 22nd the Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, passed a bill that would place the country’s two main anti-corruption bodies—NABU, which investigates wrongdoing, and SAPO, which prosecutes it—under the control of the presidency. This was not the work of rogue MPs. It was orchestrated from the top by President Volodymyr Zelensky and his all-powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak."

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/07/23/volodymyr-zelen... ( https://archive.is/kYh4w )

BBC, last week: "...was forced to U-turn after mass demonstrations",

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz0nljm4y74o ("Andriy Yermak: How Zelensky's right-hand man fell from power" / "Fall of Zelensky's top aide - reboot for Kyiv or costly shake-up?")

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_anti-corruption_protests_...

>That's the same guy who tried to take over that anti-corruption office. He would be controlling it now, if it weren't for the massive country-wide protests about it. I'm not sure that they're doing fine.

Well, they won for now, that's what matters.

Based on what culture exactly? Can you name a single Chinese worldwide hit movie or TV show from the last 12 months?

I can think of only Korean Squid Game and a few Japanese anime shows that are somewhat successful.

Do Chinese movies even get distributed into places like India, Africa, South America as US produced stuff does?

Ne Zha 2 was huge.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ne_Zha_2

  Like its predecessor, the film received highly positive reviews from critics, and achieved even greater commercial success at a gross of $2.2 billion worldwide against a production budget of US$80 million.

  Ne Zha 2 broke numerous box office records inside and outside China, including becoming the highest-grossing film in a single box office territory, the highest-grossing animated film, being the first adult animated film in this position, the highest-grossing non-English language film and the first animated film in history to cross the $2 billion mark, as well as being the highest-selling animated film based on ticket sales.

  It also ranks as the highest-grossing film of 2025 and the fifth-highest-grossing film of all time.

and that immediately sprang to mind for a 60+ Australian english speaking mathematician / geophysicist not of asian descent. No Google / Bing / AI required.

Having grandchildren made it hard to avoid.

As for China in Africa:

  Global power dynamics in Africa are shifting, with China eclipsing the influence of the US and France. China has become Africa’s single largest trading partner. 

is true, but has been overstated by some to raise fear of Red Menace.

Source: https://theconversation.com/maps-showing-chinas-growing-infl...

FWiW China has been a significant employer of US mercs in Africa.

eg: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frontier_Services_Group