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The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

(steerlabs.substack.com)
323 points steerlabs | 3 comments | 04 Dec 25 20:48 UTC | HN request time: 0.625s | source
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jqpabc123 ◴[04 Dec 25 21:38 UTC] No.46153440[source]▶
We are trying to fix probability with more probability. That is a losing game.

Thanks for pointing out the elephant in the room with LLMs.

The basic design is non-deterministic. Trying to extract "facts" or "truth" or "accuracy" is an exercise in futility.

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1. UniverseHacker ◴[08 Dec 25 14:17 UTC] No.46192471[source]▶
Specifically, they are capable of inductive logic but not deductive logic. In practice, this may not be a serious limitation, if they get good enough at induction to still almost always get the right answer.
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2. psychoslave ◴[08 Dec 25 14:24 UTC] No.46192556[source]▶
What about abduction though?
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3. UniverseHacker ◴[08 Dec 25 17:59 UTC] No.46195484[source]▶
You’ll have to wait for the FOOM “Fast Onset of Overwhelming Mastery” for that I’m afraid.