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323 points steerlabs | 9 comments | | HN request time: 2.107s | source | bottom
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jqpabc123 ◴[] No.46153440[source]
We are trying to fix probability with more probability. That is a losing game.

Thanks for pointing out the elephant in the room with LLMs.

The basic design is non-deterministic. Trying to extract "facts" or "truth" or "accuracy" is an exercise in futility.

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HarHarVeryFunny ◴[] No.46191893[source]
The factuality problem with LLMs isn't because they are non-deterministic or statistically based, but simply because they operate at the level of words, not facts. They are language models.

You can't blame an LLM for getting the facts wrong, or hallucinating, when by design they don't even attempt to store facts in the first place. All they store are language statistics, boiling down to "with preceding context X, most statistically likely next words are A, B or C". The LLM wasn't designed to know or care that outputting "B" would represent a lie or hallucination, just that it's a statistically plausible potential next word.

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1. AlecSchueler ◴[] No.46192246[source]
In a way though those things aren't so different as they might first appear. The factual answer is traditionally the most plausible response to many questions. They don't operate on any level other than pure language but there are a heap of behaviours which emerge from that.
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2. psychoslave ◴[] No.46192521[source]
Most plausible world model is not something stored raw in utterances. What we interpret from sentences is vastly different from what is extractable from mere sentences on their own.

Facts, unlike fabulations, require crossing experience beyond the expressions on trial.

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3. HarHarVeryFunny ◴[] No.46192585[source]
> The factual answer is traditionally the most plausible response to many questions

Except in cases where the training data is more wrong than correct (e.g. niche expertise where the vox pop is wrong).

However, an LLM no more deals in Q&A than in facts. It only typically replies to a question with an answer because that itself is statistically most likely, and the words of the answer are just selected one at a time in normal LLM fashion. It's not regurgitating an entire, hopefully correct, answer from someplace, so just because it was exposed to the "correct" answer in the training data, maybe multiple times, doesn't mean that's what it's going to generate.

In the case of hallucination, it's not a matter of being wrong, just the expected behavior of something built to follow patterns rather than deal in and recall facts.

For example, last night I was trying to find an old auction catalog from a particular company and year, so thought I'd try to see if Gemini 3 Pro "Thinking" maybe had the google-fu to find it available online. After the typical confident sounding "Analysing, Researching, Clarifying .." "thinking", it then confidently tells me it has found it, and to go to website X, section Y, and search for the company and year.

Not surprisingly it was not there, even though other catalogs were. It had evidently been trained on data including such requests, maybe did some RAG and got more similar results, then just output the common pattern it had found, and "lied" about having actually found it since that is what humans in the training/inference data said when they had been successful (searching for different catalogs).

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4. HarHarVeryFunny ◴[] No.46192650[source]
Right, facts need to be grounded and obtained from reliable sources such as personal experience, or a textbook. Just because statistically most people on Reddit or 4Chan said the moon is made of cheese doesn't make it so.

But again, LLMs don't even deal in facts, nor store any memories of where training samples came from, and of course have zero personal experience. It's just "he said, she said" put into a training sample blender and served one word at a time.

5. thaumasiotes ◴[] No.46193341[source]
If you want to see how well text generation works on unrehearsed questions, you can ask about what happens in a comic strip.

I found commentary about searching Google for "dark legacy comics who wants some bamboo", and posted results for that search on HN in response to a comment saying "I work at Google on the 'AI Mode' search option, check it out!" ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45609275 )

And... a few days later, Google stopped automatically including an AI overview when you made that specific search.

But it turns out there are other comics on the internet. So just now I searched for "YAFGC comic 2230" (without the quotes). This is actually a search that makes a lot of sense, because the archive page for the comic is broken and it's impossible to guess the URL of a comic if all you know is the number.

So the goal here is really to find a link to comic 2230. But here's what the AI overview provides:

----- Italics represent original bolding -----

YAFGC comic #2230, titled "You Want It When?", was published on July 17, 2012.

The single-panel comic depicts a conversation at a blacksmith's shop, featuring characters Glon Smitharm/Bloodhand and the Cyclops Bros. The dialogue centers on the unrealistic expectations for custom-made magical items:

- Glon (a half-orc) asks the cyclopes if they can forge a new weapon for him.

- The Cyclops Bros reply with questions about the desired properties of the item (e.g., "enchanted," "plus three") and the required timeframe.

- Glon gives a deadline of "Tuesday," leading the cyclopes to express disbelief at the short notice for such a powerful item.

You can view the comic directly on the official website via this link:

- YAFGC Comic 2230: You Want It When?

----------

(It may look like I've left out a link at the end. That is not the case. The answer ends by saying "you can view the comic directly via this link", in reference to some bold text that includes no link.)

However, I have left out a link from near the beginning. The sentence "The dialogue centers on the unrealistic expectations for custom-made magical items:" is accompanied by a citation to the URL https://www.yafgc.net/comic/2030-insidiously-involved/ , which is a comic that does feature Glon Smitharm/Bloodhand and Ray the Cyclops, but otherwise does not match the description and which is comic 2030 ("Insidiously Involved"), not comic 2230.

The supporting links also include a link to comic 2200 (for no good reason), and that's close enough to 2230 that I was able to navigate there manually. Here it is: https://www.yafgc.net/comic/2230-clover-nabs-her-a-goldie/

You might notice that the AI overview got the link, the date, the title, the appearing characters, the theme, and the dialog wrong.

----- postscript -----

As a bonus comic search, searching for "wow dark legacy 500" got this response from Google's AI Overview:

> Dark Legacy Comic #500 is titled "The Game," a single-panel comic released on June 18, 2015. It features the main characters sitting around a table playing a physical board game, with Keydar remarking that the in-game action has gotten "so realistic lately."

> You can view the comic and its commentary on the official Dark Legacy Comics website. [link]

Compare https://darklegacycomics.com/500 .

That [link] following "the official Dark Legacy Comics website" goes to https://wowwiki-archive.fandom.com/wiki/Dark_Legacy_Comics , by the way.

6. coldtea ◴[] No.46193613[source]
>Except in cases where the training data is more wrong than correct (e.g. niche expertise where the vox pop is wrong)

Same for human knowledge though. Learn from society/school/etc that X is Y, and you repeat X is Y, even if it's not.

>However, an LLM no more deals in Q&A than in facts. It only typically replies to a question with an answer because that itself is statistically most likely, and the words of the answer are just selected one at a time in normal LLM fashion.

And how is that different than how we build up an answer? Do we have a "correct facts" repository with fixed answers to every possibly question, or we just assemble our training data from a weighted graph (or holographic) store of factoids and memories, and our answers are also non deterministic?

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7. HarHarVeryFunny ◴[] No.46193907{3}[source]
We likely learn/generate language in an auto-regressive way at least conceptually similar to an LLM, but this isn't just self-contained auto-regressive generation...

Humans use language to express something (facts, thoughts, etc), so you can consider these thoughts being expressed as a bias to the language generation process, similar perhaps to an image being used as a bias to the captioning part of an image captioning model, or language as a bias to an image generation model.

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8. coldtea ◴[] No.46194696{4}[source]
>Humans use language to express something (facts, thoughts, etc), so you can consider these thoughts being expressed as a bias to the language generation process

My point however is more that the "thoughts being expressed" are themselves being generated by a similar process (and that it's either that or a God-given soul).

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9. HarHarVeryFunny ◴[] No.46195034{5}[source]
Similar in the sense of being mechanical (no homunculus or soul!) and predictive, but different in terms of what's being predicted (auto-regressive vs external).

So, with the LLM all you have is the auto-regressive language prediction loop.

With animals you primarily have the external "what happens next" prediction loop, with these external-world fact-based predictions presumably also the basis of their thoughts (planning/reasoning), as well as behavior.

If it's a human animal who has learned language, then you additionally have an LLM-like auto-regressive language prediction loop, but now, unlike the LLM, biased (controlled) by these fact-based thoughts (as well as language-based thoughts).