As I've pointed out before, the business of film completion bonds has this worked out. For about 3% to 5% of the cost of making a movie, you can buy an insurance policy that guarantees to the investors that they get a movie out or their money back.
What makes this work is that completion bond companies have the data to do good estimations. They have detailed spending data from previous movie productions. So they look at a script, see "car chase in city, 2 minutes screen time", and go to their database for the last thousand car chase scenes and the bell curve of how much they cost. Their estimates are imperfect, but their error is centered around zero. So completion bond companies make money on average.
The software industry buries their actual costs. That's why estimation doesn't work.