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Estimates are difficult for developers and product owners

(thorsell.io)
225 points todsacerdoti | 2 comments | 07 Dec 25 19:17 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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yen223 ◴[07 Dec 25 20:01 UTC] No.46184611[source]▶
The unique thing about estimates in software engineering is that if you do it right, projects should be impossible to estimate!

Tasks that are easiest to estimate are tasks that are predictable, and repetitive. If I ask you how long it'll take to add a new database field, and you've added a new database field 100s of times in the past and each time they take 1 day, your estimate for it is going to be very spot-on.

But in the software world, predictable and repetitive tasks are also the kinds of tasks that are most easily automated, which means the time it takes to perform those tasks should asymptotically approach 0.

But if the predictable tasks take 0 time, how long a project takes will be dominated by the novel, unpredictable parts.

That's why software estimates are very hard to do.

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bpt3 ◴[07 Dec 25 21:05 UTC] No.46185145[source]▶
If software developers want to be then seriously as a profession, they need to be able to provide and justify estimates for their work.

Everything you said could apply to a new bridge, building, pharmaceutical compound, or anything else that is the result of a process with some known and some unknown steps.

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1. kragen ◴[08 Dec 25 08:45 UTC] No.46189911[source]▶
Drug discovery chemists do not, to my knowledge, provide estimates on how long it will take them to discover a marketable drug.
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2. bpt3 ◴[08 Dec 25 12:36 UTC] No.46191534[source]▶
You think the pharmaceutical industry just gives a bunch of resources to chemists, says "godspeed", and waits around for the chemists to report back at their convenience?

In my limited exposure to the industry, that's not how it worked. They have budgets, timelines, and progress is tracked as it is determined whether there is a viable path to a marketable drug.