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225 points todsacerdoti | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
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yen223 ◴[] No.46184611[source]
The unique thing about estimates in software engineering is that if you do it right, projects should be impossible to estimate!

Tasks that are easiest to estimate are tasks that are predictable, and repetitive. If I ask you how long it'll take to add a new database field, and you've added a new database field 100s of times in the past and each time they take 1 day, your estimate for it is going to be very spot-on.

But in the software world, predictable and repetitive tasks are also the kinds of tasks that are most easily automated, which means the time it takes to perform those tasks should asymptotically approach 0.

But if the predictable tasks take 0 time, how long a project takes will be dominated by the novel, unpredictable parts.

That's why software estimates are very hard to do.

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austin-cheney ◴[] No.46189271[source]
This is going to be immediately downvoted, but whenever I see software developers mention that estimating is uniquely challenging for software it immediately calls out a bunch of red flags. Estimates in software are challenging but no more or less challenging than other industries.

Typically the people that single out software as a unique snowflake in the world of delivery and estimation really just say out loud they have no experience in project management and no experience working outside of authoring code. The things that make estimations most challenging in software are the same factors that make estimations challenging everywhere else.

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1. ctenb ◴[] No.46189312[source]
Can you give an actual counterargument?