What the heck is going on at Apple?

Poor analysis. Apple is doing quite well as a Big Tech company that simply doesn't need to "pivot to AI" like everyone else. Their missteps in "Apple Intelligence" have in fact demonstrated that they don't actually need to have much of a "strategy" here at all. In fact, if they simply link out to other people's chatbots and make it totally opt-in, that would be ideal.

The much bigger problem is that they've lost the wow factor in their software design, and in some regards the hardware as well even though the internals and build quality has never been better. Apple needs a design shakeup far more than it needs anything to do with AI, a poison pill which will bring the entire industry down in 2026.

> they've lost the wow factor in their software design

Software craftsmanship at large scale is dead, so we shouldn’t expect to see that make a return any time soon.

The last few decades of free market experimentation and evolution have revealed the playbook to maximize engagement+money: sell software as subscriptions, use every means possible (push notifications, full screen ads, etc) to monopolize the user’s attention, prevent users from importing/exporting data to keep them trapped in your walled off app…

In this kind of environment, the little touches and consideration that gave software its “wow” factor are a liability, since everything gets redesigned every 18 months anyway to keep up with the new trends and what A/B testing reveals.

The Apple of the 2000s could offer genuinely delightful experiences because software was in such a different, immature state back then and thoughtful design could be a meaningful differentiator. Similar to how the most successful+profitable games nowadays are filled with loot boxes and dark patterns, and have nothing to do with the masterpieces from a few decades ago.

Indie developers can still make delightful things that treat the customers’ wallet+time+attention with respect (thank God), but those will never make billions and billions the way Fortnite or TikTok or ads in the Settings app can.