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Estimates are difficult for developers and product owners

(thorsell.io)
225 points todsacerdoti | 1 comments | 07 Dec 25 19:17 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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epolanski ◴[07 Dec 25 20:10 UTC] No.46184682[source]▶
One thing that changed my way of thinking about estimates is reading that 86% of engineering projects, regardless of what kind of engineering (chemical, infrastructure, industrial, etc) go over budget (in time or money).

Missing estimates isn't unique to software, but it's common across all engineering fields.

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SoftTalker ◴[07 Dec 25 20:33 UTC] No.46184880[source]▶
Physical real-world projects include a buffer for this, called "contingencies" or "change orders" so that if a requirement changes or they discover something like previously unknown site geology that will require changes to the foundation they can absorb it. Based on a large history of similar projects their estimates are usually pretty good but occasionally they will run over.
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1. epolanski ◴[07 Dec 25 22:19 UTC] No.46185828[source]▶
Even accounting for contingencies most of civil engineering projects go way over budget.

Two elements (the first quite obvious, the second not really) seem to be particularly common in overruns:

- the bigger the project the likelier the overrun. Small road projects tend to be over estimated, complex rail projects are virtually always way underestimated, mega projects are never close to the budget.

- the lengthier the planning and pre-construction phase the likelier the overrun. This is particularly interesting because it's counter intuitive: you would expect that the more analysis is done, the more accurate the estimates, but experience tells us the truth is the very opposite.