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Estimates are difficult for developers and product owners

(thorsell.io)
225 points todsacerdoti | 2 comments | 07 Dec 25 19:17 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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jph ◴[07 Dec 25 19:58 UTC] No.46184595[source]▶
When teams don't need strong estimates, then Kanban works well.

When teams do need strong estimates, then the best way I know is doing a project management ROPE estimate, which uses multiple perspectives to improve the planning.

https://github.com/SixArm/project-management-rope-estimate

R = Realistic estimate. This is based on work being typical, reasonable, plausible, and usual.

O = Optimistic estimate. This is based on work turning out to be notably easy, or fast, or lucky.

P = Pessimistic estimate. This is based on work turning out to be notably hard, or slow, or unlucky.

E = Equilibristic estimate. This is based on success as 50% likely such as for critical chains and simulations.

replies(4): >>46184658 #>>46184788 #>>46185046 #>>46185692 #
1. TheOccasionalWr ◴[07 Dec 25 20:53 UTC] No.46185046[source]▶
So now you have 4 wrong estimates to work with :) To have some predictability you should have small features. That's the only thing that can give you strong estimates. No industry has solved giving strong and correct estimates - it's in the name, it's estimation!
replies(1): >>46196794 #
2. jph ◴[08 Dec 25 19:55 UTC] No.46196794[source]▶
Yes small features help enormously. I've used ROPE and work breakdown structures (WBS) to estimate multiple projects at thousands of staff hours to under 4% of actual. The ROPE advantage is that it uses multiple perspectives, which gets stakeholders understanding that the estimates are imperfect and depend on many factors.