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Estimates are difficult for developers and product owners

(thorsell.io)
225 points todsacerdoti | 1 comments | 07 Dec 25 19:17 UTC | HN request time: 0.259s | source
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epolanski ◴[07 Dec 25 20:10 UTC] No.46184682[source]▶
One thing that changed my way of thinking about estimates is reading that 86% of engineering projects, regardless of what kind of engineering (chemical, infrastructure, industrial, etc) go over budget (in time or money).

Missing estimates isn't unique to software, but it's common across all engineering fields.

replies(2): >>46184880 #>>46184937 #
1. phantasmish ◴[07 Dec 25 20:41 UTC] No.46184937[source]▶
What's wild about software is we don't do 1/10th as much planning as "real" engineering projects do, and also find ways to create problems akin to the ones they run into from interfacing with an unpredictable real-world environment, by inventing ways for all our platforms and libraries and such to be insanely unstable.

If you're not subject to the batshit insanity of the broader software market, and you crank the planning up a little closer to what "real" engineering does, software delivery gets extremely predictable. See: NASA's Space Shuttle software development processes.

(There are actual, not self-inflicted, problems with software development that "real" engineering doesn't see, though—for one thing, you can't on a whim completely restructure a building that's already been built, and for another, you generally don't have to design real-world engineering projects to defend against the case of intentional sabotage by someone who's just e.g. using the bathroom—it may happen, but it's rare and short of wacky Mission Impossible type plans, busting a water pipe in the bathroom isn't going to get you access to super-secret documents or anything like that)