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Estimates are difficult for developers and product owners

(thorsell.io)
225 points todsacerdoti | 2 comments | 07 Dec 25 19:17 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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jph ◴[07 Dec 25 19:58 UTC] No.46184595[source]▶
When teams don't need strong estimates, then Kanban works well.

When teams do need strong estimates, then the best way I know is doing a project management ROPE estimate, which uses multiple perspectives to improve the planning.

https://github.com/SixArm/project-management-rope-estimate

R = Realistic estimate. This is based on work being typical, reasonable, plausible, and usual.

O = Optimistic estimate. This is based on work turning out to be notably easy, or fast, or lucky.

P = Pessimistic estimate. This is based on work turning out to be notably hard, or slow, or unlucky.

E = Equilibristic estimate. This is based on success as 50% likely such as for critical chains and simulations.

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1. swatcoder ◴[07 Dec 25 20:07 UTC] No.46184658[source]▶
Three-point or PERT estimates are in the same vein, but are just an old and established business process concept and not a trademarked "project" from a (defunct?) consultancy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-point_estimation

https://projectmanagementacademy.net/resources/blog/a-three-...

And yeah, they can be useful when you can must put numbers to things and can decompose the work into familiar enough tasks that your estimation points are informed and plausible. Unfortunately, in a field often chasing originality/innovation, with tools that turn over far too often, that can be a near-impossible criteria to meet.

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2. jph ◴[08 Dec 25 19:44 UTC] No.46196697[source]▶
Yes you're correct. PERT 3-point was my starting point and I wanted to add a critical chain 50% estimate.

BTW the SixArm name and ROPE is merely my personal work. Way back when, I had to put on the trademark because someone else said my work was theirs.