Touching the Elephant – TPUs

I don't think Moore's Law is dead.

Starting point: In 1965, the most advanced chips contained roughly 50 to 100 transistors (e.g., early integrated logic).

Lets take 1965 -> 2025, which is 60 years.

Number of doubling intervals: 60 years / 2 years per doubling = 30 doublings

So the theoretical prediction is:

Transistors in 2025 (predicted) = 100 × 2^30 ≈ 107 billion transistors

The Apple M1 Ultra has 114 billion transistors.

Some people take Moore’s law in a strong sense: doubling rate is a constant. That is long dead.

But if we relax it to be a slowly varying constant, then it is not dead. That constant has been changed (by consensus) for a few times already.

Your mistake is to (1) take that constant literally (ie using the strong law) and (2) uses the boundary points to find the “average” effect. The latter is a really flawed argument as it cannot prove it hasn’t been dead (a recent effect) because you haven’t considered it’s change over time.