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. Free software is developed for the developer's own needs and developers are going to be power users* Free software which gains popularity is developed for the needs of many people - the users who make requests and complaints and the developers.
* Developers who write for a larger audience naturally think of more users' needs. It's true that they typically cater more to making features available than to simplicity of the UI and ease of UX.
> 2. The cost etc.
Agreed!
> 3. The developer doesn't know who the customer is and rather than research/refine just tries to hit all the boxes.
The developer typically knows what the popular use cases would be. Like with the handbrake example. They also pretty much know how newbie users like simplified workflows and hand-holding - but it's often a lot of hassle to create the simplified-with-semi-hidden-advanced-mode interface.
> 4. The distribution of the software itself means anyone who successfully installs it themselves really is a power user
Are people who install, say, the Chrome browser on their PC to be considered power userS? They downloaded and installed it themselves after all... no, I believe you're creating a false dichotomy. Some users will never install anything; some users might install common software they've heard about from friends; and some might actively look for software to install - even though they don't know much about it or about how to operate the apps and OS facilities they already h ave. ... and all of these are mostly non-power-users.