Willow quantum chip demonstrates verifiable quantum advantage on hardware

As with any quantum computing news, I will wait for Scott Aaronson to tell me what to think about this.

Why wait? Just go read the paper:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09526-6

In the last sentence of the abstract you will find:

"These results ... indicate a viable path to practical quantum advantage."

And in the conclusions:

"Although the random circuits used in the dynamic learning demonstration remain a toy model for Hamiltonians that are of practical relevance, the scheme is readily applicable to real physical systems."

So the press release is a little over-hyped. But this is real progress nonetheless (assuming the results actually hold up).

[UPDATE] It should be noted that this is still a very long way away from cracking RSA. That requires quantum error correction, which this work doesn't address at all. This work is in a completely different regime of quantum computing, looking for practical applications that use a quantum computer to simulate a physical quantum system faster than a classical computer can. The hardware improvements that produced progress in this area might be applicable to QEC some day, this is not direct progress towards implementing Shor's algorithm at all. So your crypto is still safe for the time being.

SO... BTC goes to zero?

no, not really, PQC is already being discussed in pretty much every relevant crypto thing for couple years alearady and there are multiple PQC algos ready to protect important data in banking etc as well

I don’t really understand the threat to banking. Let’s say you crack the encryption key used in my bank between a java payment processing system and a database server. You can’t just inject transactions or something. Is the threat that internal network traffic could be read? Transactions all go to clearing houses anyway. Is it to protect browser->webapp style banking? those all use ec by now anyway, and even if they don’t how do you mitm this traffic?

Where is the exact threat?

Flooding the system with forged messages that overwhelm the clearinghouse having to verify them sounds like a good way to bring down a banking system.

Sure, if a bank gets compromised you could in theory DOS a clearing house, but I'd be completely amazed if it succeeded. Those kind of anomalous spikes would be detected quickly. Not even imagining that each bank probably has dedicated instances inside each clearing house.

These are fairly robust systems. You'd likely have a much better impact dossing the banks.