I can imagine SpaceX choosing to self-finance a mission to the moon and beat NASA at it.
Self-finance ? Is that what you call US government money?
Last years SpaceX revenue was 15 Billions, of which 1.1 came from NASA. Their revenues is higher than entire NASA budget.
https://deepnewz.com/company-earnings/spacex-2025-revenue-to...
NASA Budget is 25 Billion