Client was a small org, and two very old IAM accounts had suddenly had recent (yesterday) console log ins and password changes.
I'm investigating the extent of the compromise, but so far it seems all they did was open a ticket to turn on SES production access and increase the daily email limit to 50k.
These were basically dormant IAM users from more than 5 years ago, and it's certainly odd timing that they'd suddenly pop on this particular day.