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404 points voxleone | 5 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
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allenrb ◴[] No.45661384[source]
There is just so much wrong with this from start to finish. Here are a few things, by no means inclusive:

1. We’ve already beaten China to the moon by 56 years, 3 months, and some change. And counting.

2. Nothing based around SLS is remotely serious. The cost and timeline of doing anything with it are unreasonable. It is an absolute dead-end. The SpaceX Super Heavy has been more capable arguably as early as the second flight test and certainly now. They could have built a “dumb” second stage at any time, but aren’t that short-sighted.

3. Blue Origin? I’ve had high hopes for the guys for two decades now. Don’t hold your breath.

4. Anyone else? Really, really don’t hold your breath.

This whole “race to the moon, part II” is almost criminally stupid. Land on the moon when we can accomplish something there, not just to prove we haven’t lost our mojo since Apollo.

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jmyeet ◴[] No.45661864[source]
I expect China to be the other major player in global space industries for the simpel reason that they're the only ones with the means and resolve to undergo such an endeavour. China is a command economy and they engage in long-term projects all the time. You can see with with all the intercity rail and metro systems they've built in the last 2 decades. It's crazy. As is all their power generation (hydro, solar).

the US may have gone to the Moon 50+ years ago but a lot has changed. There's no big enemy to rally behind as we manufactured in the Cold War. We don't have titans of industry anymore. We have titans of finance who coast on the inertia of early successes while raising prices, cutting costs and engaging in rent-seeking behavior.

There are serious design issues with Starship as a platform for going back to the Moon.

I'm not at all convinced the US can build anything anymore.

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dfee ◴[] No.45662000[source]
> I'm not at all convinced the US can build anything anymore.

But it has! Look at all of our private industry! That's the point!

> We don't have titans of industry anymore.

What?!

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testing22321 ◴[] No.45662061[source]
SpaceX and to a much lesser extent Tesla are good examples. Excluding those for a minute, what else does the US have world-leading manufacturing of?

Semiconductors? Nope.

High speed rail? Nope.

Auto industry? Nope.

Major infrastructure projects like bridges, tunnels, airports, etc? Nope.

Electronics (phones/laptops/etc)? Nope.

?????

The US is not exactly a manufacturing powerhouse.

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hollerith ◴[] No.45662235{4}[source]
The production of cutting-edge semiconductors requires a global supply chain. The US's main contribution to that supply chain is (very expensive) software required in the design of an IC.

The US is second in manufacturing and far ahead of numbers 3 and 4 (Germany and Japan IIRC).

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heavyset_go ◴[] No.45662389{5}[source]
Anyone can write software, the idea that we're uniquely capable in that domain is foolhardy
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MostlyStable ◴[] No.45662520{6}[source]
Anyone can do any of those above industries as well, what's your point?
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1. heavyset_go ◴[] No.45662808{7}[source]
See the grandparent's comment about global supply chains. Everyone requires everyone else in those industries, no one does it all on their own.

I posit that software has no such supply chain dependency, literally anyone can do it, and thinking the US is unique in their ability to produce software isn't accurate.

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2. parineum ◴[] No.45664383[source]
Why doesn't everyone else simply start their own silocon valley!?
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3. heavyset_go ◴[] No.45664642[source]
ByteDance, Alibaba, Baidu, three of Silicon Valley's most famous companies responsible for uniquely American successes like TikTok.
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4. parineum ◴[] No.45670276{3}[source]
> literally anyone can do it

Doesn't it seem odd to you that only the two largest economies in the world are doing something so lucrative if literally anyone can do it?

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5. heavyset_go ◴[] No.45674386{4}[source]
I only need to list one other example to illustrate American exceptionalism is not an exception.