I can imagine SpaceX choosing to self-finance a mission to the moon and beat NASA at it.
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That probably does require some imagination. Starting with any incentive to do so.
“Starship will end up doing the whole Moon mission. Mark my words.”
To address your question, what is the incentive for going to Mars
My comment wasn’t putting any faith in the suggestion spacex will, merely saying Elon thinks they will.
Here's a list; https://elonmusk.today/
by 2017!
"I see a path to Twitter exceeding a billion monthly users in 12 to 18 months." — 11/27/2022