ChatGPT Atlas

The more these foundational AI companies focus on product development, the more convinced I am that improvements in intelligence of the base models have slowed down to a point where AGI/"superintelligence" isn't happening, and they have to sustain their valuations in alternate ways.

GPT-5 was the evidence for me.

We can wait for Gemini 3.0 to see if it's a huge improvement, but my best guess is that if OpenAI couldn't get a meaningful improvement, it's more likely that it's non-trivial to be gotten than they're just incompetent.

Evan an AGI is going to require basic ways like having access to a browser in order to get things done

Agreed 1000%. And the rate ate which OpenAI is spitting out new product tests like this I think they know very well they're hitting the limits of what the underlying model can do

I'd think you have to do product development. Unless you get to true SUPERintelligence, even getting to AGI by itself gives you very little. Imagine they got to true AGI, but with an IQ of 100 -- what does that open up for you? I can't think of much. You really need to start doing product development so that you can use the 100 IQ AI to do things like automate some processes or do web queries for you, etc... With today's LLMs we already get most of the value of 100 IQ AGI. Now if you give me 300 IQ super intelligence then that's a game changer.

If it was real AGI you'd just give it a screen recording, and mouse and keyboard input. Then it could use literally any existing app on the computer.

In my day-to-day work, after having some time to use it regularly, I haven't noticed GPT-5 being way better than o3 or o4-mini-high. It is marginally better.

The explanation behind the acquisition of Statsig is so obvious.

OAI is taking a Meta-old-school approach towards building products. Did it work at Meta? Nah, they ended up acquiring since their internal efforts were not preferred by the users in the market.