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521 points hd4 | 34 comments | | HN request time: 1.974s | source | bottom
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hunglee2 ◴[] No.45643396[source]
The US attempt to slow down China's technological development succeeds on the basis of preventing China from directly following the same path, but may backfire in the sense it forces innovation by China in a different direction. The overall outcome for us all may be increase efficiency as a result of this forced innovation, especially if Chinese companies continue to open source their advances, so we may in the end have reason to thank the US for their civilisational gate keeping
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dlisboa ◴[] No.45643770[source]
History has shown that withholding technology from China does not significantly stop them and they'll achieve it (or better) in a small number of years.

In many senses there's hubris in the western* view of China accomplishments: most of what western companies have created has had significant contribution by Chinese scientists or manufacturing, without which those companies would have nothing. If you look at the names of AI researchers there's a strong pattern even if some are currently plying their trade in the west.

---

* I hate the term "western" because some "westeners" use it to separated what they think are "civilized" from "uncivilized", hence for them LATAM is not "western" even though everything about LATAM countries is western.

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hshdhdhj4444 ◴[] No.45646546[source]
Ironically, the best way America could have prevented China’s rise in tech was by stapling green cards to diplomas of Chinese citizens who completed their higher education in the U.S. like the plan in the early 2010s.
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1. ahmeneeroe-v2 ◴[] No.45646906[source]
Is that the best way? China's rise had already happened by the 2010s

Preventing that could have been prevented in the 70s, 80s, 90s by stopping offshoring, blocking student visas, and prosecuting IP theft.

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2. brookst ◴[] No.45647021[source]
Those students would have just gone to other countries, written their PhD dissertations there, advanced another country’s tech sector, and the US would have found the pain of isolationism that much sooner.

It is not possible to keep core IP secret. HN folks, of all people, should know this. Anything that thousands of people know is de facto public knowledge.

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3. delfinom ◴[] No.45647026[source]
Eh? They are a country with a culture that values education like a few other asian countries. They were set back by the colonial bullshit of Europe, devastation of WW2 and communist revolutions and so. They would have gotten to the same point as they are today, just longer if anything if any attempt was made to hamper it.
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4. adventured ◴[] No.45647098[source]
The inclusion of China in the WTO is what changed everything.

The elites thought they'd set up shop in a new, gigantic consumer market and reap the rewards. So they got Clinton to spend his last days in office lobbying very aggressively for China's inclusion into the WTO.

China had different plans. Keeping the plunderers out (this time) was one of the smartest moves any nation has made in recorded history. Then the same elites slowly pivoted against China, post realizing they wouldn't be allowed to own China. If we can own you, you're our friend; if we can't own you, you're our enemy. And this is quite obviously not a defense of China's human rights record or anything else, that's not the point. China only mattered (in the enemy sense) when the elites realized they were going to be locked on the outside of the rise.

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5. ahmeneeroe-v2 ◴[] No.45647101[source]
Keeping core IP secret is not the issue. The issue is allowing the Chinese to steal IP and then compete in our markets with that stolen IP.

>students would have just gone to other countries, written their PhD dissertations there, advanced another country’s tech sector,

which other countries specifically? No other country has a tech sector. It's the US hegemony or the China hegemony.

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6. FpUser ◴[] No.45647814{3}[source]
>"...The issue is allowing the Chinese to steal IP..."

I do not think they need permission. There is no force that could order country to recognize IP. Do you really expect all world forever pay rent to few giant corps?

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7. ahmeneeroe-v2 ◴[] No.45647991[source]
You're 100% correct. "Prevented" is too strong of a word (that I borrowed from GP).

I would characterize my recommendations as things that could have been done for the US to not fund or encourage the re-rise of China.

8. ahmeneeroe-v2 ◴[] No.45648024{4}[source]
Bad reading comprehension.

You're talking about recognizing IP, I am talking about stealing IP AND selling stolen IP in our markets.

1st: yes force can be used to discourage the theft of IP. This is merely an obstacle, not a total blocker 2nd: yes force can be used to block IP from our markets. This is actually incredibly trivial and would have been very easy 40-years ago.

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9. FpUser ◴[] No.45648550{5}[source]
>You're talking about recognizing IP, I am talking about stealing IP ..."

If country does not recognize IP then "stealing" is not a theft in their eyes.

As for using force to prevent "theft": what force? Military? You might get burned really bad.

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10. corimaith ◴[] No.45649036[source]
How are you going to gain core IP research if you don't have experience or access to leading edge researchers to pass you knowledge in the first place?

Talent is proportional to population, but that only matters if society and state has the infrastructure to raise that talent up. Otherwise Nigeria or Indonesia would be scientific powerhouses, and Iran would have modern fighter jets.

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11. corimaith ◴[] No.45649104{6}[source]
A military controlling the flow of goods into its own borders isn't going to "burn bad", it's called customs controls.
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12. corimaith ◴[] No.45649258[source]
Traditional Confucian Exams were more of elite dispute resolution mechanisms. The idea of practical education is largely introduced by the West.
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13. gessha ◴[] No.45649653{3}[source]
Which reminds me of this article about the origin of the research university by the Germans:

https://asteriskmag.com/issues/10/the-origin-of-the-research...

14. Cyph0n ◴[] No.45649861{3}[source]
> Otherwise Nigeria or Indonesia would be scientific powerhouses, and Iran would have modern fighter jets.

The reason why these statements are not true is because of colonization, delayed industrialization, and Western intervention post-independence. Getting out of this “quicksand” is exceedingly difficult.

China did well to industrialize quickly and keep intervention at bay - in fact, you could argue that it making the rest of the world reliant on its industrial capacity helped address the intervention problem.

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15. FpUser ◴[] No.45650066{7}[source]
>"The issue is allowing the Chinese to steal IP and then compete in our markets with that stolen IP"

That was the original message. My understanding of "our markets" was customers of the US which include the US itself, China and many other countries. Sure the US can prohibit importing of China's goods. It can not control what happens in the rest of the world to the degree that it once could.

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16. wagwang ◴[] No.45650071{4}[source]
This world view is just wrong from top to bottom. Between 1945-1970, China was in a much worser state that any of those 3rd world countries in many aspects. Are you saying post 1970, the reason why these countries did not develop as fast as china is because of colonialism and intervention? You can apply the same arguments to Japan in 45 and Korea in 50. But but but aid? Ok and we send billions to countries all around the world every year.
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17. Cyph0n ◴[] No.45650139{5}[source]
But I just pointed out that China is an exception? Also, China had access to human capital at a scale that no African country had.

Japan pre-45 was a world power, and had industrialized by the early 1900s. WW2 was a mere setback.

Korea is more of a “miracle” than Japan was, but they also did well to industrialize ASAP. They also didn’t face the brunt of European colonialism.

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18. heavyset_go ◴[] No.45650224{5}[source]
China wasn't beholden to neoliberalism and the World Bank and IMF.

China made the right choice to dump a ton of resources into different industries without the expectation of immediate RoI or any RoI at all. Anyone or anything that got in the way of their goals were dealt with.

19. ahmeneeroe-v2 ◴[] No.45650426{6}[source]
Sorry no. If you can't imagine how one country couldn't use force to stop another country from stealing IP then you are either not intellectually up to this conversation or not arguing in good faith.
20. ahmeneeroe-v2 ◴[] No.45650439{8}[source]
I did specify the 70s 80s and 90s.
21. markdown ◴[] No.45650564{5}[source]
Aid is the single largest barrier to development and progress over the long term.
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22. marcosdumay ◴[] No.45650782[source]
> The elites thought they'd set up shop in a new, gigantic consumer market and reap the rewards.

So... Seems that's exactly what they are getting.

23. fspeech ◴[] No.45652062[source]
They didn't keep the foreign corporations out. Having them as on-shore competitors is what keeps their own companies from merely seeking rents. Foreign companies also didn't bring their best products in the beginning out of the fear of getting copied, but that strategy is not sustainable over time as Chinese companies get better at making things.
24. shakow ◴[] No.45653632{6}[source]
> They also didn’t face the brunt of European colonialism.

But they faced the brunt of Chinese & Japanese colonialism, and a full-blown civil war after which their GDP per capita was in the same ballpark as Kenya's.

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25. dontlaugh ◴[] No.45653648{5}[source]
Yes.

Imperialism (as a system of extracting wealth from poor countries) continues to exist, but China has a working countermeasure. You can see similar with Vietnam.

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26. dontlaugh ◴[] No.45653652{6}[source]
“Those who come with wheat, millet, corn or milk, they are not helping us. Those who really want to help us can give us ploughs, tractors, fertilizers, insecticides, watering cans, drills and dams. That is how we would define food aid.” ― Thomas Sankara
27. wagwang ◴[] No.45657489{6}[source]
Sure if you water down the term of imperialism then yes. It is then incumbent on you to prove "imperialism" among the worst performers economically. What imperialism plagues liberia and ethiopia and honduras and papua new guinea
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28. wagwang ◴[] No.45657495{6}[source]
Lots of miracles and exceptions in a working theory
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29. heavyset_go ◴[] No.45662212{7}[source]
Papau New Guinea was ravaged by imperialism, invaded by imperial Japan and then was a meat grinder warfront in WWII. It was controlled by Australia since then.

Similarly in WWI, it was invaded by Australia and only gained independence in 1975.

Before that, it was split between Germany, the British and Dutch.

Before that, its population was impressed and blackbirded by European traders.

Like cargo cults literally developed there lol

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30. Cyph0n ◴[] No.45662245{7}[source]
Lots? There are 100 or so countries between Asia and Africa. And we are talking about a handful of East Asian countries.
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31. Cyph0n ◴[] No.45662732{7}[source]
Yes, they did well given the odds.
32. wagwang ◴[] No.45664196{8}[source]
So what, china in 1975 was a completely destroyed country, comparable to north korea
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33. wagwang ◴[] No.45664197{8}[source]
I wonder if there are some other factors here considering the geographical clustering.
34. heavyset_go ◴[] No.45664620{9}[source]
You asked what imperialism affected Papau New Guinea and I answered you. I'm not making an argument or addressing anything other than that from your post.